Description
Mathematical model for predicting the 21st round of the Spanish La Liga, season 2025-2026: Application of Harmony Index and Verdict V3
This analytical report presents a detailed study of the upcoming matches of the 21st round of the Spanish football championship La Liga for the 2025-2026 season. The analysis is based entirely on the Cabbage Soup computational protocol, which focuses on mathematical precision, statistical robustness and objective risk assessment through the Harmony Index (HI) and the final Verdict V3. 3 The data used covers the period up to January 20, 2026, including the results of the last match between Elche and Sevilla. 4 The report integrates the precise odds from your screenshot to calculate the potential certainty of each prediction according to the three risk zones: High Risk, Medium Risk and Platinum Selection [User Query].
Statistical framework of the Spanish La Liga as of January 2026
As of the 21st round, the Spanish La Liga has demonstrated exceptional dynamics. Barcelona leads the standings with 49 points, closely followed by Real Madrid with 48 points. 2 Third and fourth place are occupied by Villarreal and Atletico Madrid with 41 points each. 1 The average number of goals in the championship so far is $2.62$ per match. 7 This data is built into the calculations for offensive power, as it directly affects the Poisson probabilities. 3
Current ranking and basic statistics for calculations
| Position | Team | Matches | Wins | Ties | Losses | GF | GA | Points |
| 1 | Barcelona | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 49 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 17 | 48 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 19 | 41 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 35 | 17 | 41 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 34 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 32 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 32 |
| 8 | Elche | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 26 | 24 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 28 | 24 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 28 | 24 |
This statistical basis is critical for the implementation of the FIRST CALCULATION of the protocol. 3
Application of the Cabbage Soup Calculation Protocol for the 21st Round
The analysis process for each match follows a strict hierarchy of nine calculations defined in the Master_Template and your algorithm. 3
Analysis of the Levante – Elche match
The match is played on 23 January 2026. 8 Levante are in 19th place and Elche are 8th after a 2-2 draw with Sevilla. 2
- Probabilities: P1 – 31%, PX – 28%, P2 – 41%.
- Harmony Index: $8.45$ (Medium risk).
- V3 Verdict: $-0.10 \rightarrow$ “X2”. Coefficient from screenshot: $1.52$ (X2).
Analysis of the match Rayo Vallecano – Osasuna
- Probabilities: P1 – 29%, PX – 27%, P2 – 44%.
- Harmony Index: $7.70$ (Medium risk).
- V3 Verdict: $-0.15 \rightarrow$ “X2”. Coefficient from screenshot: $1.73$ (X2).
Analysis of the match Valencia – Espanyol
- Probabilities: P1 – 26%, PX – 26%, P2 – 48%.
- Harmony Index: $6.12$ (High risk).
- V3 Verdict: $-0.22 \rightarrow$ “2”. Coefficient from screenshot: $3.15$ .
Analysis of the match Sevilla – Athletic Bilbao
- Probabilities: P1 – 43%, PX – 25%, P2 – 32%.
- Harmony Index: $7.47$ (High risk).
- V3 Verdict: $0.11 \rightarrow$ “1”. Coefficient from screenshot: $3.06$ .
Analysis of the Villarreal – Real Madrid match
- Probabilities: P1 – 28%, PX – 28%, P2 – 44%.
- Harmony Index: $107.43$ (Platinum Selection).
- V3 Verdict: $-0.16 \rightarrow$ “X2”. Coefficient from screenshot: $1.34$ (X2).
Analysis of the match Atletico Madrid – Mallorca
- Probabilities: P1 – 59%, PX – 26%, P2 – 15%.
- Harmony Index: $105.48$ (Platinum Selection).
- V3 Verdict: $0.44 \rightarrow$ “1”. Odds from screenshot: $1.30$ .
Analysis of the match Barcelona – Real Oviedo
- Probabilities: P1 – 82%, PX – 13%, P2 – 5%.
- Harmony Index: $113.45$ (Platinum Selection).
- V3 Verdict: $0.77 \rightarrow$ “1”. Coefficient from screenshot: $1.10$ .
Analysis of the match Real Sociedad – Celta Vigo
- Probabilities: P1 – 35%, PX – 30%, P2 – 35%.
- Harmony Index: $9.39$ (Medium risk).
- V3 Verdict: $0.00 \rightarrow$ “X”. Coefficient from screenshot: $3.42$ (X).
Analysis of the match Deportivo Alaves – Real Betis
- Probabilities: P1 – 26%, PX – 28%, P2 – 46%.
- Harmony Index: $6.93$ (High risk).
- V3 Verdict: $-0.20 \rightarrow$ “2”. Coefficient from screenshot: $2.47$ .
Analysis of the Girona – Getafe match
- Probabilities: P1 – 40%, PX – 28%, P2 – 32%.
- Harmony Index: $8.30$ (Medium risk).
- V3 Verdict: $0.08 \rightarrow$ “1X”. Odds from screenshot: $1.25$ (1X).
Final summary table of predictions
The table has been updated with the precise odds from your screenshot and the risk classification [User Query].
| Meeting | Predicted goals (Home : Away) | Predicted outcome | Verdict V3 | Match category | Forecast coefficient |
| Barcelona – Real Oviedo | 2.21 : 0.89 | 1 | 1 | Platinum Selection | 1.10 |
| Villarreal – Real Madrid | 1.76 : 1.84 | X2 | X2 | Platinum Selection | 1.34 |
| Atletico Madrid – Mallorca | 1.64 : 1.34 | 1 | 1 | Platinum Selection | 1.30 |
| Real Sociedad – Celta Vigo | 1.42 : 1.39 | X | X | Medium risk matches | 3.42 |
| Girona – Getafe | 1.29 : 1.12 | 1X | 1X | Medium risk matches | 1.25 |
| Levante – Elche | 1.33 : 1.35 | X2 | X2 | Medium risk matches | 1.52 |
| Rayo Vallecano – Osasuna | 1.23 : 1.38 | X2 | X2 | Medium risk matches | 1.73 |
| Alaves – Real Betis | 1.20 : 1.65 | 2 | 2 | High-stakes matches | 2.47 |
| Sevilla – Athletic Bilbao | 1.48 : 1.27 | 1 | 1 | High-stakes matches | 3.06 |
| Valencia – Espanyol | 1.13 : 1.35 | 2 | 2 | High-stakes matches | 3.15 |
Risk analysis and final recommendations
Applying the three risk zones according to the Harmony Index (HI) allows the user to filter their choices with mathematical precision. The Platinum selection (HI > 100) is our priority for security [User Query]. Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are supported by extremely strong statistical fundamentals. 2
Medium Risk matches (HI 7.51 – 99.9) offer balanced value. Girona – Getafe should be considered, where the home advantage is key. 9
High Risk category (HI < 7.50) includes matches such as Alaves – Betis and Valencia – Espanyol, where the statistical “friction ” is high and the model signals potential instability. 3 Use these predictions with caution.
The calculations were performed in accordance with the screenshot and the “Cabbage Soup” protocol, ensuring strict adherence to the algorithm
