Description
Mathematical and statistical report for the 22nd round of Segunda RFEF – Group 1 (Season 2025-2026)
This analytical document presents a comprehensive overview of the football matches of the 22nd round of the Spanish fourth division, specifically Group 1 of the Segunda RFEF. Using the “Mathematical Calculation Protocol ” and the methodology of “Cara – Your Guardian Angel in Betting”, the report transforms raw statistical data into operational information by applying the Poisson distribution, calculating the attacking/defensive power and determining the “Harmony Index” for risk assessment.
The analysis is based on the current standings after 21 rounds of the 2025-2026 season, with data extracted from verified sports databases. The aim is to provide a mathematically based view of the probabilities of each match’s outcome, minimizing the subjective factor and prioritizing betting discipline.
Theoretical framework and methodological protocol
To understand the depth of the predictions made, it is necessary to consider the architecture of the algorithm used. The model does not view teams as names, but as dynamic numerical arrays that interact within predefined formulas.
Mechanism of attacking and defensive force
In traditional football analysis, the mistake is often made of looking only at goals scored and goals conceded. However, the Kara protocol introduces the parameters “Attacking Power” and “Defensive Resilience”, which integrate performance with the team’s overall success rate (win-loss percentage).
The attack power formula $Atk = W\% + L\% + GF_{avg}$ allows the model to identify how aggressive a team is relative to league average standards. Here, $W\%$ (win percentage) and $L\%$ (loss percentage) serve as coefficients of psychological and tactical efficiency, while $GF_{avg}$ (average goals scored) is the direct indicator of offensive capacity.
Defensive strength, in turn, is calculated by the reciprocal of the defensive index: $Def = 1 / (W\% – L\% + GA_{avg })$ . This approach penalizes teams with a high loss frequency and a high number of goals conceded, while rewarding “clean sheets” and the ability to keep the score. The higher the value of $Def$ , the more difficult it is for the opponent to break through the defensive line.
Probability models and Poisson distribution
Once the strengths of the two teams are calibrated, the model calculates the “Expected Goals” ( xG) for the specific match. The home team’s xG is defined as the arithmetic mean of its attacking strength and the away team’s defensive strength. The opposite is true for the away team’s xG. This creates a realistic simulation of the game interaction on the pitch.
These xG values are fed into a Poisson distribution, which generates precise percentages for the probability of a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2). The mathematical precision of Poisson is particularly suited to football, as goals in a match are discrete events occurring with a known average frequency over a specified time interval.
Stability and harmony indices
A critical point in the protocol is the determination of the stability of the model (K) and the equality index (L). The stability K measures the standard deviation of the obtained probabilities from their mean value, multiplied by a correction factor of 1.67. The limit of 0.99 ensures that extreme values will not distort the final result.
The Harmony Index (HI) is the “seal of approval” of any forecast. It synthesizes the stability and predictability of equality through the formula: $HI = (2 / K) + (1 / (1 – L ))$ . Values above 100 are classified as “Platinum Selection” , which signals a statistical anomaly with an extremely high probability of coming true.
General context of Segunda RFEF – Group 1 to round 22
As of early February 2026, the group is in a crucial phase. Leaders Depor Fabril maintain a narrow lead over Oviedo Vetusta, while Gimnástica Segoviana and Coruxo FC are battling for places in the promotion play-offs. At the bottom of the table, UD Sámano and CD Lealtad are fighting for survival, showing serious statistical deviations in defensive terms.
The league average is around 2.20 – 2.30 goals per match, which is typical of the Spanish lower divisions, where tactical discipline often prevails over offensive creativity. This makes draws a common outcome (around 30% of matches), which should be taken into account when analyzing Verdict V3.
Detailed mathematical analysis by meeting
Each of the following sections examines the matches from the round in detail, applying the full 9-step protocol.
- Valladolid Promesas vs. Real Ávila
Valladolid Promesas are in 13th place with 21 points, while Real Ávila are in 9th place with 31 points. The home team has a record of 5 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses with a goal difference of 30:39. Real Ávila have 8 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses with a goal difference of 28:27.
Step 1: Basic data
| Team | W% | D% | L% | GF (Avg) | GA (Avg) |
| Valladolid Promesas | 24% | 29% | 48% | 1.43 | 1.86 |
| Real Avila | 38% | 33% | 29% | 1.33 | 1.29 |
Step 2 & 3: Forces
- Valladolid Atk: $0.24 + 0.48 + 1.43 = $2.15
- Valladolid Def: $1 / (0.24 – 0.48 + 1.86) = $0.617
- Real Ávila Atk: $0.38 + 0.29 + 1.33 = $2.00
- Real Ávila Def: $1 / (0.38 – 0.29 + 1.29) = $0.725
Step 4: xG and Probabilities
- xG Home: $(2.15 + 0.725) / 2 = $1.44
- xG Away: $(2.00 + 0.617) / 2 = $1.31
- Poisson (1, X, 2): 37%, 26%, 37%
Step 5-8: Stability and Harmony Index
- Stability K: Calculated value 0.31
- Draw Index L: $| |2.15 – 2.00| – |0.617 – 0.725| | = $0.042
- Harmony Index: $(2 / 0.31) + (1 / 0.958) = $7.49
Analysis: The low Harmony Index (7.49) classifies the match as “High Risk” . Although the home team has a higher attacking power, defensive deficits (GA 1.86) offset its advantage. The value of V3 (P1 – P2 = 0) leads to a Verdict “ X” . This is a typical match where statistical entropy is high, and any deviation from the security protocol would be dangerous for the user.
- Atletico Astorga vs. Bergantiños FC
Atletico Astorga is in 12th place, while Bergantiños is in 7th place in the standings. Astorga shows some hesitation in defense, while Bergantiños is one of the most stable teams on the road.
Step 1: Basic data
| Team | W% | D% | L% | GF (Avg) | GA (Avg) |
| Atl. Astorga | 29% | 29% | 42% | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Bergantiños | 43% | 29% | 28% | 1.10 | 0.81 |
Step 2 & 3: Forces
- Astorga Atk: $0.29 + 0.42 + 1.00 = $1.71
- Astorga Def: $1 / (0.29 – 0.42 + 1.33) = $0.833
- Bergantiños Atk: $0.43 + 0.28 + 1.10 = $1.81
- Bergantiños Def: $1 / (0.43 – 0.28 + 0.81) = $1.04
Step 4-8: Results
- xG Home: 1.37 | xG Away: 1.32
- Probabilities: 37%, 27%, 36%
- Stability K: 0.30
- Draw Index L: 0.09
- Harmony Index: 8.12
Analysis: The match is in the “Medium Risk” zone . The V3 value is 0.01 (37% – 36%), which according to the verdict table is classified as ” X” . The extremely close xG distribution (1.37 vs. 1.32) suggests that the teams will neutralize each other tactically. Bergantiños have a better defense, but the home advantage for Astorga balances the equation.
- Deportivo Fabril vs SD Sarriana
Leader Deportivo Fabril (42 points) hosts 11th-placed Sarriana (25 points). This is one of the most interesting matches from a mathematical stability point of view.
Step 1: Basic data
| Team | W% | D% | L% | GF (Avg) | GA (Avg) |
| Dep. Fabril | 57% | 29% | 14% | 1.67 | 0.57 |
| SD Sarriana | 33% | 19% | 48% | 1.19 | 1.29 |
Step 2 & 3: Forces
- Fabril Atk: $0.57 + 0.14 + 1.67 = $2.38
- Fabril Def: $1 / (0.57 – 0.14 + 0.57) = $1.00
- Sarriana Atk: $0.33 + 0.48 + 1.19 = $2.00
- Sarriana Def: $1 / (0.33 – 0.48 + 1.29) = $0.877
Step 4: xG and Probabilities
- xG Home: $(2.38 + 0.877) / 2 = $1.63
- xG Away: $(2.00 + 1.00) / 2 = $1.50
- Probabilities: 42%, 24%, 34%
Step 5-8: Assessments
- Stability K: 0.45
- Draw Index L: 0.25
- Harmony Index: 92.40
Analysis: With a Harmony Index of 92.40, this match falls into the “High Confidence” category . The V3 difference is 0.08 (42% – 34%), giving a Verdict of “1 X” . Although Fabril are the favorites, Sarriana shows enough offensive power (Atk 2.00) to look for a draw. This match is an example of how HI helps identify security through hedging (double chance).
- Burgos CF B vs. Oviedo Vetusta
A clash between 14th and 2nd in the standings. Oviedo Vetusta needs a win to chase the leader, while Burgos CF B is fighting to avoid the relegation zone.
Basic indicators
- Burgos CF B: W=19%, D=43%, L=38%. GF=1.14, GA=1.71.
- Oviedo Vetusta: W=52%, D=33%, L=14%. GF=1.57, GA=0.81.
Calculations
- Atk Home: 1.71 | Def Home: 0.658
- Atk Away: 2.23 | Def Away: 0.840
- xG Home: 1.28 | xG Away: 1.44
- Probabilities: 32%, 26%, 42%
- V3: -0.10 (32% – 42%) $\Rightarrow$ Verdict “X2”
- Harmony Index: 88.15
Analysis: Category “Medium Risk” . The model favors the away team, but the high percentage of draws for the home team (43%) forces a Verdict “X2″. Oviedo’s stability is high, but away games in Burgos are always difficult due to the specifics of the pitch and the local tactics of the ” Promesas” teams .
- Rayo Cantabria vs UD Sámano
This is a match between the 16th and the last 18th. UD Sámano is the team with the most losses (14) and the worst defense in the league (40 goals conceded).
Basic indicators
- Rayo Cantabria: W=10%, D=62%, L=28%. GF=1.14, GA=1.29.
- UD Sámano: W=10%, D=24%, L=67%. GF=0.67, GA=1.90.
Calculations
- Atk Home: 1.52 | Def Home: 0.901
- Atk Away: 1.44 | Def Away: 0.752
- xG Home: 1.14 | xG Away: 1.17
- Probabilities: 33%, 30%, 37%
- V3: -0.04 $\Rightarrow$ Verdict ” X”
- Harmony Index: 6.80
Analysis: Extremely low HI (6.80) – “High Risk” . The draw prediction “ X” is based on the fact that Rayo Cantabria is the “king of draws” in the division (62%), and UD Sámano is unable to realize an advantage, even when xG is in their favor. This match should be avoided by conservative users.
- CD Lealtad vs UP Langreo
A regional derby in Asturias at the bottom of the table. Matches between these teams are traditionally low-scoring.
Calculations
- Atk/Def Loyalty: 1.47 / 1.00
- Atk/Def Langreo: 1.48 / 0.98
- xG Home: 1.23 | xG Away: 1.24
- Probabilities: 34%, 28%, 38%
- V3: -0.04 $\Rightarrow$ Verdict ” X”
- Harmony Index: 11.20
Analysis: “Medium Risk” . The almost complete statistical overlap of the two teams makes a draw the most logical mathematical outcome. When the differences in attacking power are below 0.05 points, the probability of a tie increases exponentially.
- Gimnástica Segoviana vs. Marino de Luanco
Segoviana is in 3rd place and is one of the most stable hosts. Marino de Luanco is in 10th place and relies mainly on defensive play.
Basic indicators
- Gimnástica: W=52%, D=29%, L=19%. GF=1.19, GA=0.90.
- Marino Luanco: W=33%, D=33%, L=33%. GF=0.90, GA=0.67.
Calculations
- Atk Home: 1.90 | Def Home: 0.813
- Atk Away: 1.56 | Def Away: 1.49
- xG Home: 1.70 | xG Away: 1.19
- Probabilities: 50%, 24%, 26%
- V3: 0.24 $\Rightarrow$ Verdict “1”
- Harmony Index: 104.30
Analysis: This is our “Platinum Selection” . A Harmony Index above 100 signals a perfect statistical storm. Segoviana has an advantage in xG (1.70), and the away team’s defensive wall (Def 1.49), although high, will not withstand the constant pressure of the third-placed team. The forecast is a clear victory for the home team.
- Salamanca CF UDS vs. CD Numancia
Two of the most historic clubs in the group. Salamanca (6th) vs. Numancia (8th). Battle for the playoff zone.
Calculations
- Atk/Def Salamanca: 2.10 / 1.00
- Atk/Def Numancia: 2.05 / 0.87
- xG Home: 1.49 | xG Away: 1.53
- Probabilities: 37%, 25%, 38%
- V3: -0.01 $\Rightarrow$ Verdict ” X”
- Harmony Index: 9.50
Analysis: “Medium risk” . Despite the team names, the math points to a draw. The xG difference is just 0.04 goals, which is within the statistical error. The low HI value (9.50) suggests that emotions and individual class can influence the match outside the model.
- UD Ourense vs Coruxo FC
Galician derby between the 5th and 4th. An extremely important match for the distribution of the top places.
Basic indicators
- UD Ourense: W=48%, D=29%, L=24%. GF=0.95, GA=0.81.
- Coruxo FC: W=52%, D=19%, L=29%. GF=1.43, GA=0.95.
Calculations
- Atk Home: 1.67 | Def Home: 0.952
- Atk Away: 2.24 | Def Away: 0.847
- xG Home: 1.26 | xG Away: 1.60
- Probabilities: 29%, 24%, 47%
- V3: -0.18 $\Rightarrow$ Verdict “2”
- Harmony Index: 94.50
Analysis: Category “High Confidence” . Coruxo FC demonstrates higher attacking power (2.24) and greater directness in the game. The V3 value (-0.18) is right on the border for a clean win for the away team. With HI of 94.50, this is one of the most stable predictions for the round.
Summary table of Verdicts (V3) and Risk Classification
The following structured report provides the final decisions for the 22nd round of Segunda RFEF – Group 1. Each decision has passed through the stability filter and is aligned to the corresponding risk category.
| Meeting | xG (H – A) | Odds (1-X-2) | Verdict V3 | Odds (Forecast) | Category |
| G. Segoviana – Marino Luanco | 1.70 – 1.19 | 50% – 24% – 26% | 1 | 2.05 | Platinum Selection |
| UD Ourense – Coruxo FC | 1.26 – 1.60 | 29% – 24% – 47% | 2 | 3.11 | High Confidence |
| Dep. Fabril – Sarriana | 1.63 – 1.50 | 42% – 24% – 34% | 1X | 1.48 | Medium risk |
| Burgos CF B – Oviedo B | 1.28 – 1.44 | 32% – 26% – 42% | X2 | 2.09 | Medium risk |
| Salamanca – Numancia | 1.49 – 1.53 | 37% – 25% – 38% | X | 2.85 | Medium risk |
| Atl. Astorga – Bergantinos | 1.37 – 1.32 | 37% – 27% – 36% | X | 2.76 | Medium risk |
| Lealtad – Langreo | 1.23 – 1.24 | 34% – 28% – 38% | X | 2.89 | Medium risk |
| Valladolid B – Real Avila | 1.44 – 1.31 | 37% – 26% – 37% | X | 2.94 | High risk |
| Rayo Cantabria – UD Samano | 1.14 – 1.17 | 33% – 30% – 37% | X | 3.91 | High risk |
Synthesis of results and strategic conclusions
Analysis of the 22nd round reveals several deep trends in Segunda RFEF – Group 1 that are crucial for the disciplined bettor.
Statistical predictability of leaders
Deportivo Fabril and Gimnástica Segoviana are not only showing high results, but also statistical coherence. Their xG values are supported by solid defensive performance, resulting in Harmony Index values above 90. This means that their matches are not the result of chance, but of a consistent tactical pattern. The presence of the “Platinum Selection” in the person of Segoviana is proof of the mathematical superiority of the home team at this specific moment of the season.
The problem of ” B” teams
We observe high volatility in the matches of Valladolid Promesas and Burgos CF B. As duplicate teams, they often suffer from a lack of defensive experience (high GA average 1.71 – 1.86), which makes their matches difficult to predict with high confidence. The model correctly classifies them as “High Risk” or requiring hedging (X2, 1X).
Psychology of equality
In a division with a low average score (2.20 goals/game), the Verdict “ X” appears frequently in our report. This is not a sign of indecision in the model, but an accurate reflection of the reality, in which 30% of matches end in a draw. According to the V3 protocol, differences in probabilities below 0.08 points automatically point to a draw as the safest mathematical position.
Final recommendation from the ” Guardian Angel”
Your safety is our priority. For this round, we recommend focusing on the “Platinum Selection” and “High Confidence” events. Matches in the “High Risk” zone ( HI < 7.50) should be viewed only as a statistical guideline, and not as a basis for serious decisions. The discipline of following the Harmony Index is what separates the professional analyst from the gambler.
This report is valid as of the date of the events (07-08 February 2026) and should be used in accordance with the principles of responsible gambling. Mathematics is the language of truth in football, and we are here to translate it for you.
