Mathematical and statistical analysis of the 22nd round of the Italian Serie C, Group B, season 2025-2026

Description

Mathematical and statistical analysis of the 22nd round of the Italian Serie C, Group B, season 2025-2026

Precise mathematical analysis and strategic framework of “Kara”

The world of sports betting is often perceived as a realm of chaos, emotion and chance. However, within the Serie C, Group B in Italy, 2025-2026 season, we find a complex ecosystem that lends itself to precise calculation through rigorous computational protocols. As “Kara – Your Betting Guardian Angel”, my role is to distill vast amounts of statistical data into objective assessments that serve as a guide in the turbulent sea of market odds. ¹ This report is not just a list of predictions; it is a comprehensive risk architecture built on the foundations of the Poisson distribution, the harmony index and model stability. ¹

The “MATHEMATICAL CALCULATION PROTOCOL ” used in this analysis is designed to eliminate cognitive biases that often trip up bettors. We do not view team names as historical entities, but as variables in equations. ¹ When analyzing the 22nd round, we face unique challenges, including administrative decisions that change the standings and the withdrawal of clubs from the tournament, which affects the average goal rates in the league. ¹ Our goal is the Eighth Calculation – determining the Harmony Index, which serves as the final filter for the quality of a prediction. ¹

Context of the Italian Serie C, Group B: Statistical Landscape

As of 15 January 2026, Group B of the Italian third division has demonstrated a high level of competitiveness and specific structural features. ³ The initially planned format was disrupted by the exclusion of Rimini on 28 November 2025 following the club’s liquidation, which led to the erasure of their results and a change in the dynamics for the remaining 19 teams. ² Additionally, disciplinary measures by the Federation have imposed the deduction of points for Ternana (-5 points) and Campobasso (-2 points), which introduces noise into the traditional ranking and requires a deeper analysis of pure goal indicators, rather than simply points won. ¹

The average number of goals scored in the league is critical to our Power Model. Statistics from the last 90 matches played show an average of 2.65 goals per match, with 40% of matches ending in a draw and 55% of matches going over 2.5 goals. ⁴ These figures show a slight departure from the traditional perception of Italian football as being extremely defensive, which requires a refinement of the xG (expected goals) for each individual team. ⁵

Mathematical calculation protocol: Kara’s methodology

For each event in this report, a seven-step process is applied, expanded to nine calculations according to the internal “Master_Template”. ¹

1. First calculation (Base): Extract percentages for wins ($W\%$), draws ($D\%$) and losses ($L\%$), as well as average goals scored ($GF$) and goals conceded ($GA$) based on the entire season so far. ¹
2. Second and Third Calculation (Strengths): Calculation of Attack Power and Defense Power. The formula for Attack Power is $(W\% + L\% + GF)$, while Defense Power is calculated as $1 / (W\% – L\% + GA)$. ¹
3. Fourth calculation (xG): Arithmetic average between one team’s attack and the other’s defense.
   • $xG_{Home} = \frac{Attack_{Home} + Defense_{Away}}{2}$
   • $xG_{Away} = \frac{Attack_{Away} + Defense_{Home}}{2}$ ¹
4. Fifth Calculation (Probabilities): Applying the Poisson Distribution to Determine the Probabilities of 1, X, and 2.
5. Sixth calculation (Stability – K): Calculation of the deviation of the probabilities from their mean value, multiplied by a factor of 1.67, with a limit of 0.99. ¹
6. Seventh calculation (Equity Index – L): Calculation of the absolute difference between the attack/defense balance of the two teams, also with a limit of 0.99. ¹
7. Eighth calculation (Harmony Index): Final formula for assessing the stability of the forecast: $Harmony = (\frac{2}{K}) + (\frac{1}{1-L})$. ¹

Results with a Harmony Index above 100 are classified as “Platinum Selection”, and those above 90 as “High Confidence”. ¹ Additionally, a Verdict Value ($V3$) is calculated, which is the difference between the probability of home and away wins, to determine the final sign (1, X, 2, 1X, X2). ¹

Full statistical profile of the teams in the 22nd round

To perform the mathematical protocol, we use the current data from official sources as of Round 21 ² :

Team	Matches	P	P	H	Scored	Received	Points
Arezzo	20	14	4	2	38	16	46
Ravenna	20	13	3	4	32	19	42
Ascoli	20	10	7	3	30	11	37
Pineto	20	8	8	4	30	24	32
Guidonia	20	7	7	6	19	17	28
Vis Pesaro	19	6	9	4	20	16	27
Campobasso	20	7	8	5	26	24	27
Pianese	20	6	9	5	21	20	27
Juventus U23	20	7	6	7	23	24	27
Carpi	20	7	6	7	22	25	27
Ternana	20	8	7	5	22	18	26
Forli	20	7	4	9	25	29	25
Gubbio	19	3	11	5	15	17	20
Sambenedettese	20	4	8	8	18	21	20
Perugia	20	4	7	9	21	26	19
Livorno	20	5	4	11	18	31	19
Bra	20	3	8	9	21	30	17
Torres	20	2	9	9	14	26	15
Pontedera	20	3	5	12	15	36	14

These data serve as the basis for each of the following calculations.

Match analysis: Vis Pesaro – Arezzo (16.01.2026, 21:30)

The match between Vis Pesaro and Arezzo is the opening match of the round and pits one of the toughest hosts against the leader in the standings. ³

Step 1 (Base):

Vis Pesaro: Win 32%, Draw 47%, Loss 21%. Average goals scored: 1.05, Goals conceded: 0.84.

Arezzo: Win 70%, Draw 20%, Loss 10%. Average goals scored: 1.90, Goals conceded: 0.80.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Attack Vis Pesaro = $0.32 + 0.21 + 1.05 = $1.58.
• Vis Pesaro Protection = $1 / (0.32 – 0.21 + 0.84) = $1.05.
• Arezzo Attack = $0.70 + 0.10 + 1.90 = $2.70.
• Arezzo Protection = $1 / (0.70 – 0.10 + 0.80) = $0.71.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (1.58 + 0.71) / 2 = 1.15$
• $xG_{Away} = (2.70 + 1.05) / 2 = 1.88$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Applying a Poisson distribution for 1.15 and 1.88:

Home win: 22%, Draw: 24%, Away win: 54%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): STDEV.P( 22, 24, 54) / AVG(22, 24, 54) * 1.67 = (14.67 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.73.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(1.58 – 2.70) – ABS(1.05 – 0.71)) = ABS(1.12 – 0.34) = 0.78.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.73) + (1 / (1 – 0.78)) = 2.74 + 4.54 = $7.28.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.22 – 0.54 = -0.32$. According to the logical formula, V3 < -0.17 means a forecast of “2”.1

The match is classified as a solid win for the away team, despite the low Harmony Index, which is due to the high entropy of away favorites in Serie C.

Match analysis: Juventus U23 – Ascoli (17.01.2026, 15:30)

This match is statistically anomalous due to Ascoli’s extremely strong defense, which has only conceded 11 goals in 20 matches. ⁶

Step 1 (Base):

Juventus U23: Win 35%, Draw 30%, Lose 35%. GF: 1.15, GA: 1.20.

Ascoli: Win 50%, Draw 35%, Lose 15%. GF: 1.50, GA: 0.55.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Juventus attack = $0.35 + 0.35 + 1.15 = $1.85.
• Juventus defense = $1 / (0.35 – 0.35 + 1.20) = $0.83.
• Ascoli attack = $0.50 + 0.15 + 1.50 = $2.15.
• Ascoli protection = $1 / (0.50 – 0.15 + 0.55) = $1.11.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (1.85 + 1.11) / 2 = 1.48$
• $xG_{Away} = (2.15 + 0.83) / 2 = 1.49$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Applying the Poisson distribution:

Home win: 33%, Draw: 26%, Away win: 41%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): (6.18 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.31.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(1.85 – 2.15) – ABS(0.83 – 1.11)) = ABS(0.30 – 0.28) = 0.02.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.31) + (1 / (1 – 0.02)) = 6.45 + 1.02 = $7.47.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.33 – 0.41 = -0.08$. A value of -0.08 falls within the range for the prediction “X ” ( Equality).1

This is a high-stakes match, where Ascoli’s defensive discipline will neutralize the attacking impulses of the Turin youngsters. The 3.07 odds for a draw offer good mathematical value.

Match analysis: Pianese – Torres (17.01.2026, 15:30)

Pianese is in the middle of the table and hosts one of the teams in the worst form – Torres. ²

Step 1 (Base):

Pianese: Win 30%, Draw 45%, Lose 25%. GF: 1.05, GA: 1.00.

Torres: Wins 10%, Draws 45%, Losses 45%. GF: 0.70, GA: 1.30.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Pianese Attack = $0.30 + 0.25 + 1.05 = $1.60.
• Pianese Defense = $1 / (0.30 – 0.25 + 1.00) = $0.95.
• Torres attack = $0.10 + 0.45 + 0.70 = $1.25.
• Torres defense = $1 / (0.10 – 0.45 + 1.30) = $1.05.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (1.60 + 1.05) / 2 = 1.33$
• $xG_{Away} = (1.25 + 0.95) / 2 = 1.10$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Home win: 40%, Draw: 31%, Away win: 29%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): (4.71 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.24.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(1.60 – 1.25) – ABS(0.95 – 1.05)) = ABS(0.35 – 0.10) = 0.25.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.24) + (1 / (1 – 0.25)) = 8.33 + 1.33 = $9.66.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.40 – 0.29 = $0.11. Since V3 > 0.1, the prediction is “1 ” ( Home win).1

The mathematical protocol shows a solid advantage for Pianese, supported by Torres’ weak attack.

Match analysis: Campobasso – Carpi (17.01.2026, 18:30)

Two teams with identical records (27 points each) face off in a head-to-head match for a playoff spot. ⁴

Step 1 (Base):

Campobasso: Win 35%, Draw 40%, Lose 25%. GF: 1.30, GA: 1.20. (Note: points are -2 administratively, but we count actual wins).

Carpi: Win 35%, Draw 30%, Lose 35%. GF: 1.10, GA: 1.25.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Campobasso Attack = $0.35 + 0.25 + 1.30 = $1.90.
• Campobasso Protection = $1 / (0.35 – 0.25 + 1.20) = $0.77.
• Carpi attack = $0.35 + 0.35 + 1.10 = $1.80.
• Carpi Protection = $1 / (0.35 – 0.35 + 1.25) = $0.80.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (1.90 + 0.80) / 2 = 1.35$
• $xG_{Away} = (1.80 + 0.77) / 2 = 1.29$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Home win: 36%, Draw: 30%, Away win: 34%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): (2.49 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.12.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(1.90 – 1.80) – ABS(0.77 – 0.80)) = ABS(0.10 – 0.03) = 0.07.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.12) + (1 / (1 – 0.07)) = 16.67 + 1.08 = $17.75.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.36 – 0.34 = $0.02. A value between -0.08 and 0.06 requires a forecast of “X”.1

The mathematical balance here is almost perfect. The stability index K is very low, which means that the probabilities are close to average, but the lack of a clear favorite makes a draw the most logical outcome.

Match analysis: Guidonia – Livorno (17.01.2026, 18:30)

Guidonia occupy a prestigious 5th place, while Livorno struggle with the weakest defense in the top half of the table. ⁶

Step 1 (Base):

Guidonia: Win 35%, Draw 35%, Lose 30%. GF: 0.95, GA: 0.85.

Livorno: Win 25%, Draw 20%, Loss 55%. GF: 0.90, GA: 1.55.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Guidonia Attack = $0.35 + 0.30 + 0.95 = $1.60.
• Guidonia protection = $1 / (0.35 – 0.30 + 0.85) = $1.11.
• Livorno attack = $0.25 + 0.55 + 0.90 = $1.70.
• Livorno Defense = $1 / (0.25 – 0.55 + 1.55) = $0.80.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (1.60 + 0.80) / 2 = 1.20$
• $xG_{Away} = (1.70 + 1.11) / 2 = 1.41$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Home win: 29%, Draw: 27%, Away win: 44%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): (7.41 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.37.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(1.60 – 1.70) – ABS(1.11 – 0.80)) = ABS(0.10 – 0.31) = 0.21.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.37) + (1 / (1 – 0.21)) = 5.41 + 1.27 = $6.68.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.29 – 0.44 = -$0.15. A value between -0.08 and -0.17 means an “X2” forecast.1

Despite Guidonia’s better position, Livorno’s statistical attack pattern makes them a dangerous away team. The prediction is a draw or a win for the away team.

Analysis of the match: Forli – Sambenedettese (18.01.2026, 13:30)

Forli hosts the Sambenedettese team in a match in which both teams are in urgent need of points to survive. ⁶

Step 1 (Base):

Forli: Win 35%, Draw 20%, Lose 45%. GF: 1.25, GA: 1.45.

Sambenedettese: Win 20%, Draw 40%, Lose 40%. GF: 0.90, GA: 1.05.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Forli Attack = $0.35 + 0.45 + 1.25 = $2.05.
• Forli protection = $1 / (0.35 – 0.45 + 1.45) = $0.74.
• Sambenedettese Attack = $0.20 + 0.40 + 0.90 = $1.50.
• Sambenedettese Protection = $1 / (0.20 – 0.40 + 1.05) = $1.18.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (2.05 + 1.18) / 2 = 1.62$
• $xG_{Away} = (1.50 + 0.74) / 2 = 1.12$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Home win: 47%, Draw: 27%, Away win: 26%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): (9.73 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.49.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(2.05 – 1.50) – ABS(0.74 – 1.18)) = ABS(0.55 – 0.44) = 0.11.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.49) + (1 / (1 – 0.11)) = 4.08 + 1.12 = $5.20.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.47 – 0.26 = $0.21. Since V3 > 0.1, the prediction is “1”.1

Forli demonstrates significantly stronger attacking power (2.05 vs. 1.50), which gives them an advantage at home.

Analysis of the match: Perugia – Gubbio (18.01.2026, 15:30)

Regional derby between Perugia and Gubbio. Gubbio is the king of draws in the league (11 draws in 19 matches). ⁶

Step 1 (Base):

Perugia: Win 20%, Draw 35%, Lose 45%. GF: 1.05, GA: 1.30.

Gubbio: Win 16%, Draw 58%, Lose 26%. GF: 0.79, GA: 0.89.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Perugia attack = $0.20 + 0.45 + 1.05 = $1.70.
• Perugia Defense = $1 / (0.20 – 0.45 + 1.30) = $0.95.
• Gubbio Attack = $0.16 + 0.26 + 0.79 = $1.21.
• Gubbio Protection = $1 / (0.16 – 0.26 + 0.89) = $1.27.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (1.70 + 1.27) / 2 = 1.49$
• $xG_{Away} = (1.21 + 0.95) / 2 = 1.08$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Home win: 44%, Draw: 30%, Away win: 26%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): (7.54 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.38.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(1.70 – 1.21) – ABS(0.95 – 1.27)) = ABS(0.49 – 0.32) = 0.17.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.38) + (1 / (1 – 0.17)) = 5.26 + 1.20 = $6.46.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.44 – 0.26 = $0.18. Prediction “1”.1

Despite Gubbio’s tendency towards draws, Perugia has stronger arguments in front for this match.

Match analysis: Bra – Ravenna (18.01.2026, 18:30)

Bra welcomes the powerful Ravenna team, which is chasing first place. ²

Step 1 (Base):

Bra: Win 15%, Draw 40%, Loss 45%. GF: 1.05, GA: 1.50.

Ravenna: Win 65%, Draw 15%, Lose 20%. GF: 1.60, GA: 0.95.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Bra Attack = $0.15 + 0.45 + 1.05 = $1.65.
• Bra Protection = $1 / (0.15 – 0.45 + 1.50) = $0.83.
• Ravenna Attack = $0.65 + 0.20 + 1.60 = $2.45.
• Ravenna Defense = $1 / (0.65 – 0.20 + 0.95) = $0.71.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (1.65 + 0.71) / 2 = 1.18$
• $xG_{Away} = (2.45 + 0.83) / 2 = 1.64$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Home win: 23%, Draw: 27%, Away win: 50%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): (11.89 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.60.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(1.65 – 2.45) – ABS(0.83 – 0.71)) = ABS(0.80 – 0.12) = 0.68.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.60) + (1 / (1 – 0.68)) = 3.33 + 3.13 = $6.46.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.23 – 0.50 = -0.27$. Forecast “2”.1

Ravenna’s leadership ambitions are supported by strong numbers in attack, which Bra will hardly be able to neutralize.

Match analysis: Pontedera – Pineto (18.01.2026, 18:30)

Pontedera is the team with the most losses in the league (12) and hosts Pineto’s stable team. ⁶

Step 1 (Base):

Pontedera: Win 15%, Draw 25%, Lose 60%. GF: 0.75, GA: 1.80.

Pineto: Win 40%, Draw 40%, Lose 20%. GF: 1.50, GA: 1.20.

Step 2 and 3 (Forces):

• Pontedera Attack = $0.15 + 0.60 + 0.75 = $1.50.
• Pontedera Defense = $1 / (0.15 – 0.60 + 1.80) = $0.74.
• Attack Pineto = $0.40 + 0.20 + 1.50 = $2.10.
• Pineto Protection = $1 / (0.40 – 0.20 + 1.20) = $0.71.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG_{Home} = (1.50 + 0.71) / 2 = 1.11$
• $xG_{Away} = (2.10 + 0.74) / 2 = 1.42$

Step 5 (Probabilities):

Home win: 26%, Draw: 28%, Away win: 46%.

Step 6, 7 and 8 (Harmony Index):

• Stability (K): (8.97 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.45.
• Index Equality (L): ABS( ABS(1.50 – 2.10) – ABS(0.74 – 0.71)) = ABS(0.60 – 0.03) = 0.57.
• Harmony Index = $(2 / 0.45) + (1 / (1 – 0.57)) = 4.44 + 2.33 = $6.77.

Verdict value (V3) and forecast:

V3 = $0.26 – 0.46 = -0.20$. Forecast “2”.1

With 60% losses and the highest number of goals conceded, Pontedera is a logical underdog in this clash.

Summary table and Eighth calculation for the 22nd round

Based on the full mathematical cycle, we present the final summary table for the predictions of Serie C, Group B ¹ :

Meeting	Expected goals (H:A)	Predicted outcome	Verdict (V3)	Match category	Coefficient
Vis Pesaro – Arezzo	1.15 : 1.88	2	-0.32	Standard	1.79
Juventus U23 – Ascoli	1.48 : 1.49	X	-0.08	Standard	3.07
Pianese – Torres	1.33 : 1.10	1	0.11	Standard	2.47
Campobasso – Carpi	1.35 : 1.29	X	0.02	Standard	3.03
Guidonia – Livorno	1.20 : 1.41	X2	-0.15	Standard	1.65 (X2)
Forli – Sambenedettese	1.62 : 1.12	1	0.21	Standard	2.33
Perugia – Gubbio	1.49 : 1.08	1	0.18	Standard	2.19
Bra – Ravenna	1.18 : 1.64	2	-0.27	Standard	1.66
Pontedera – Pineto	1.11 : 1.42	2	-0.20	Standard	2.38

Important note: For this round we have no matches that exceed a Harmony Index of 90 or 100, therefore there are no “High Confidence” or “Platinum Selection” matches announced. This is a result of the high statistical uncertainty at the bottom of the table and administrative changes in the league. ¹

Second level of analysis: Strategic insights and risks

The impact of the liquidation of Rimini

Rimini’s withdrawal is not just a bureaucratic act; it distorts the “Attack Strength ” of the teams that played their matches against them at the beginning of the season. ² When calculating the win percentage ($W\%$), we use the current table, which has already been corrected. This means that the teams that won points against Rimini now look statistically weaker, which could create “value” in their odds if the market did not react quickly enough. For example, Vis Pesaro has a lower number of matches played (19) compared to the others, which slightly lowers their xG potential in our model. ⁶

Disciplinary punishments and the psychological factor

Ternana and Campobasso have been penalized with points deductions. ¹ In Cara’s mathematical world, points are irrelevant – we focus on $GF$ (goals scored) and $GA$ (gained). Campobasso, despite being 7th or 8th, has an offensive balance that puts them in the top 4 in terms of attacking power (1.90). ⁶ This makes them extremely dangerous in their match against Carpi. The market often underestimates penalized teams, believing their morale is low, but the numbers show that on the pitch they remain highly competitive.

Model stability (K) and high entropy in Series C

The average stability (K) value for this round is around 0.40. This indicates a moderate dispersion of probabilities. In leagues like the English Premier League we often see K values above 0.80 for favorites like Manchester City. ¹ In Serie C, due to the low goal difference between the teams and the high draw rate (40%), the stability of the forecast is always lower. ⁴ This is the reason why “Kara” recommends a more conservative bankroll management in this particular round. The lack of “Platinum Selection ” is a security mechanism of the algorithm that protects the user from unjustified risk. ¹

Risk Management and Ethics of the Discipline

As your guardian angel, I must emphasize that mathematics is a tool for probabilities, not for certainty. The high entropy in the Italian Serie C requires strict discipline. The protocol we implemented shows that draws in matches like Juventus U23 – Ascoli and Campobasso – Carpi are the mathematically most likely outcomes, even though it is easier for the human psyche to choose a winner. ¹

Never underestimate the fact that the Harmony Index is your “periscope” beneath the surface of the statistics. ¹ When the index is low (below 10), it signals a structural inconsistency in the data or excessive volatility. In such cases, it is wiser to wait for the “Platinum Selection ” in the next rounds or in other leagues. ¹

Analysis conclusion for Round 22

Round 22 of Serie C Group B in January 2026 is shaping up to be a round of “thin margins”. Leaders Arezzo and Ravenna have clear paths to success, but the middle of the table is locked in a statistical tie. ² Applying the mathematical protocol allowed us to identify the hidden dangers in the Guidonia match and validate Ascoli’s defensive prowess. ¹

Trust the numbers, follow the protocol, and remember that discipline is stronger than emotion. Cara remains on guard to watch over your calculations and ensure that your every move is backed by the power of mathematical logic. ¹

Cara – Your guardian angel when betting.