Description
Mathematical and statistical analysis of the 21st round in Liga Portugal in the 2025-2026 season: Calculation Protocol and Harmonic Index
This analytical report presents a comprehensive mathematical and statistical review of the 21st round of the Portuguese professional football championship, Liga Portugal Betclic, for the 2025-2026 season. The analysis is structured by applying a specialized calculation protocol developed to identify objective probabilities and minimize subjective risk in predicting sports events. In the context of modern sports analysis, where data volatility often obscures real trends, the use of deterministic algorithms such as the Poisson distribution and Harmony Index (HI) is established as a standard for achieving high predictive accuracy.
The Portuguese championship in February 2026 is at a critical stage, where the differences in the top of the table and the battle for survival are minimal, which requires a rigorous computational approach to assess the stability of each model. The data used covers the performance of the teams from the start of the campaign to the current moment, taking into account indicators such as winning percentage, goals per match and the specific defensive resilience of each squad.
Theoretical framework and methodological protocol
For the purposes of the analysis, a nine-step computational model is applied, which transforms raw statistics into dynamic strength coefficients. The initial stage includes the extraction of basic indicators for each team – percentages of wins ($W\%$), draws ($D\%$) and losses ($L\%$), as well as averages of goals scored ($AvgGF$) and goals conceded ($AvgGA$). These parameters are used to calculate the strength of the attack ($SA$) and the strength of the defense ($SZ$) according to the formulas:
$$SA = W\% + L\% + AvgGF$$
$$SZ = \ frac{ 1}{W\% – L\% + AvgGA}$$
Where the percentages are expressed as decimals. This method allows to integrate not only the goal production, but also the overall success rate of the team in the context of wins and losses. The next phase is the determination of the expected goals ($xG$), which is the arithmetic mean value between the offensive strength of one team and the defensive vulnerability of the other.
$$xG_{Home} = \frac{SA_{Home} + SZ_{Away }}{ 2}$$
$$xG_{Away} = \frac{SA_{Away} + SZ_{Home }}{ 2}$$
The predicted probabilities for the final outcome (1, X, 2) are derived using a Poisson distribution, which models the probability of a specific number of events (goals) occurring within a fixed interval. An important aspect of the analysis is the calculation of the stability of the model ($K$) and the equality index ($L$), which form the final Harmony Index ($HI$):
$$K = \frac{\ text{ STDEV.P}(1, X, 2)}{\text{AVERAGE}(1, X, 2)} \times 1.67 \\ L = | |SA_{Home} – SA_{Away}| – |SZ_{Home} – SZ_{Away}| | \\ HI = \frac{2}{K} + \frac{1}{1 – L}$$
The values of $K$ and $L$ are capped at 0.99 to prevent mathematical distortion of the final index. The classification of results is based on the resulting $HI$ points, with values above 100 being defined as “Platinum Selection” – matches with the highest level of statistical certainty.
State of Liga Portugal before the 21st round
As of early February 2026, FC Porto leads the standings with 55 points, closely followed by Sporting Lisbon with 51 points and Benfica with 46 points. The current season has been characterised by the dominance of Porto, who, under the guidance of Francesco Farioli, have demonstrated exceptional defensive stability, conceding only 6 goals in 20 matches. At the same time, Sporting remain the top scorer with 54 goals, driven by the offensive prowess of their forwards.
At the other end of the table is AVS, which is in last place with just 5 points and zero wins since the start of the season. Tondela and Santa Clara are also in danger of relegation, with their attacking performances being among the weakest in the league. The current 21st round offers clashes that could radically change the situation in both the title fight and the battle for survival.
Match Analysis 1: Moreirense vs. Gil Vicente
The match between Moreirense and Gil Vicente pits the sixth and fifth placed teams against each other, making this one of the most closely contested matches of the round. Gil Vicente comes into the match in excellent form after an impressive 5-0 win over Famalicão in the previous round. Moreirense, on the other hand, has maintained a solid performance at home at the Estadio Comendador Almeida Freitas, where they have won 6 of their 9 home games this season.
Statistical indicators and calculations
The baseline data for both teams shows similar success rates, but Gil Vicente has a better goal difference (+13 vs. -1 for Moreirense). This is due to their significantly better defense, which has only conceded 16 goals in 20 matches.
| Parameter | Moreirense (Home) | Gilles Vicente (Guest) |
| Matches (MP) | 20 | 20 |
| Wins (W) | 9 | 9 |
| Draws (D) | 3 | 7 |
| Losses (L) | 8 | 4 |
| Goals scored (GF) | 26 | 29 |
| Goals conceded (GA) | 27 | 16 |
| Win % | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Loss % | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Avg GF | 1.30 | 1.45 |
| Avg GA | 1.35 | 0.80 |
Applying the force algorithm:
- $SA_{Moreirense} = 0.45 + 0.40 + 1.30 = 2.15$
- $SA_{GilVicente} = 0.45 + 0.20 + 1.45 = 2.10$
- $SZ_{Moreirense} = \ frac{ 1}{0.45 – 0.40 + 1.35} = \frac{1}{1.40} = 0.71$
- $SZ_{GilVicente} = \ frac{ 1}{0.45 – 0.20 + 0.80} = \frac{1}{1.05} = 0.95$
The expected goals ($xG$) for the match are:
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 2.15 + 0.95}{2} = 1.55$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 2.10 + 0.71}{2} = 1.41$
Using the Poisson distribution, the following probabilities are obtained: Win 1 – 38%; Draw X – 26%; Win 2 – 36%. The difference $V3 = 0.38 – 0.36 = 0.02$, which according to the instructions defines a verdict “X”.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model ($K$) is calculated based on the standard deviation of the three probabilities (0.052), divided by their mean (0.333), multiplied by 1.67, which gives $K = 0.26$. The equality index ($L$) is $| |2.15 – 2.10| – |0.71 – 0.95| | = | 0.05 – 0.24 | = 0.19$.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.26} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.19} = 7.69 + 1.23 = 8.92$$
The Harmony Index value of 8.92 places this match in the “Medium Risk” category. Although the mathematical verdict is for a draw, the low margin between the probabilities and the recent attacking form of the visitors suggest caution.
Match Analysis 2: Estrela Amadora vs Santa Clara
The battle at the José Gómez Stadium is crucial for the survival of both teams. Estrela is in 12th place with 20 points, while Santa Clara is in 16th place with 17 points. Estrela is known for its defensive style under manager João Nuno, but has serious difficulties in converting chances in front of goal. Santa Clara, for its part, is on a bad run of results, having lost 11 of its 20 matches so far.
Statistical indicators and calculations
Both teams have a serious deficit in scoring goals, with Santa Clara having scored only 16 goals all season.
| Parameter | Estrela (Host) | Santa Clara (Away) |
| MP | 20 | 20 |
| W | 4 | 4 |
| D | 8 | 5 |
| L | 8 | 11 |
| GF | 24 | 16 |
| GA | 37 | 25 |
| Win % | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Loss % | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| Avg GF | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Avg GA | 1.85 | 1.25 |
Force calculations:
- $SA_{Estrela} = 0.20 + 0.40 + 1.20 = 1.80$
- $SA_{SantaClara} = 0.20 + 0.55 + 0.80 = 1.55$
- $SZ_{Estrela} = \ frac{ 1}{0.20 – 0.40 + 1.85} = \frac{1}{1.65} = 0.61$
- $SZ_{SantaClara} = \ frac{ 1}{0.20 – 0.55 + 1.25} = \frac{1}{0.90} = 1.11$
Expected goals ($xG$):
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 1.80 + 1.11}{2} = 1.46$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 1.55 + 0.61}{2} = 1.08$
The Poisson probabilities are: Win 1 – 42%; Tie X – 30%; Win 2 – 28%. The value of $V3 = 0.42 – 0.28 = 0.14$, which leads to a verdict of “1”.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model ($K$) here is higher ($K = 0.36$), and the equality index ($L$) is $| |1.80 – 1.55| – |0.61 – 1.11| | = | 0.25 – 0.50 | = 0.25$.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.36} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.25} = 5.56 + 1.33 = 6.89$$
With a Harmony Index of 6.89, the match falls into the “High Risk” zone. The reason is the high probability of a low-scoring draw, given the visitors’ offensive weakness and the hosts’ hesitant defense.
Match Analysis 3: Estoril Praia vs Tondela
Estoril Praia occupy a comfortable 7th place in the standings and host second-to-last Tondela. Estoril is one of the most attractive teams in the league, having scored 41 goals so far. Tondela are fighting for survival and rely mainly on defensive tactics, which was evident in their recent 0-0 draw against Benfica.
Statistical indicators and calculations
The home team has a clear advantage in all offensive metrics.
| Parameter | Estoril (Home) | Tondela (Guest) |
| MP | 20 | 20 |
| W | 8 | 3 |
| D | 5 | 4 |
| L | 7 | 13 |
| GF | 41 | 12 |
| GA | 33 | 33 |
| Win % | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| Loss % | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| Avg GF | 2.05 | 0.60 |
| Avg GA | 1.65 | 1.65 |
Force calculations:
- $SA_{Estoril} = 0.40 + 0.35 + 2.05 = 2.80$
- $SA_{Tondela} = 0.15 + 0.65 + 0.60 = 1.40$
- $SZ_{Estoril} = \ frac{ 1}{0.40 – 0.35 + 1.65} = \frac{1}{1.70} = 0.59$
- $SZ_{Tondela} = \ frac{ 1}{0.15 – 0.65 + 1.65} = \frac{1}{1.15} = 0.87$
Expected goals ($xG$):
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 2.80 + 0.87}{2} = 1.84$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 1.40 + 0.59}{2} = 1.00$
Probabilities: Win 1 – 54%; Draw X – 25%; Win 2 – 21%. The value of $V3 = 0.54 – 0.21 = 0.33$, which gives a verdict of “1”.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model is $K = 0.73$. The equality index is $| |2.80 – 1.40| – |0.59 – 0.87| | = | 1.40 – 0.28 | = 1.12$. Due to the constraint, $L$ is taken as 0.99.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.73} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.99} = 2.74 + 100 = 102.74$$
The score of 102.74 points automatically classifies this match as a “Platinum Selection”. The huge gap between Estoril’s attacking potential and Tondela’s inability to score away from home makes this match one of the safest in the draw.
Match 4 Analysis: FC Arouca vs. Vitoria Guimaraes
Arouca hosts Vitoria Guimaraes in a clash that promises goals according to statistics. Arouca has one of the weakest defenses in the league, conceding 44 goals in 20 matches. Vitoria Guimaraes, although in 9th place, has a higher individual class, but suffers from a lack of consistency on their away games.
Statistical indicators and calculations
The balance of power is tilted towards the guests, but Arouca’s home factor should not be underestimated.
| Parameter | Arouca (Home) | Vittoria (Guest) |
| MP | 20 | 20 |
| W | 5 | 8 |
| D | 5 | 4 |
| L | 10 | 8 |
| GF | 23 | 21 |
| GA | 44 | 27 |
| Win % | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| Loss % | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| Avg GF | 1.15 | 1.05 |
| Avg GA | 2.20 | 1.35 |
Force calculations:
- $SA_{Arouca} = 0.25 + 0.50 + 1.15 = 1.90$
- $SA_{Vitoria} = 0.40 + 0.40 + 1.05 = 1.85$
- $SZ_{Arouca} = \ frac{ 1}{0.25 – 0.50 + 2.20} = \frac{1}{1.95} = 0.51$
- $SZ_{Vitoria} = \ frac{ 1}{0.40 – 0.40 + 1.35} = \frac{1}{1.35} = 0.74$
Expected goals ($xG$):
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 1.90 + 0.74}{2} = 1.32$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 1.85 + 0.51}{2} = 1.18$
Probabilities: Win 1 – 37%; Draw X – 30%; Win 2 – 33%. $V3 = 0.37 – 0.33 = 0.04$, which leads to a verdict of “X”.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model is low ($K = 0.17$), which means that the probabilities are too close. The equality index is $| |1.90 – 1.85| – |0.51 – 0.74| | = | 0.05 – 0.23 | = 0.18$.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.17} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.18} = 11.76 + 1.22 = 12.98$$
With a Harmony Index of 12.98, the match falls into the “Medium Risk” category. The prediction of a draw is mathematically justified, but Arouca’s defensive weaknesses could lead to an unexpected development.
Match Analysis 5: Nacional vs. Casa Pia
Nacional Madeira host Casa Pia in a match where the home team has the historic advantage. Nacional are in 11th place, while Casa Pia are in 15th place, but come into the match on the back of a sensational 2-1 win over Porto. This result could act as a powerful catalyst for the visitors, who are struggling to climb out of the relegation zone.
Statistical indicators and calculations
Nacional has shown good form on their own island, while Casa Pia has serious defensive difficulties, conceding 39 goals.
| Parameter | Nacional (Home) | Casa Pia (Guest) |
| MP | 20 | 20 |
| W | 5 | 4 |
| D | 5 | 6 |
| L | 10 | 10 |
| GF | 27 | 22 |
| GA | 30 | 39 |
| Win % | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| Loss % | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Avg GF | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| Avg GA | 1.50 | 1.95 |
Force calculations:
- $SA_{Nacional} = 0.25 + 0.50 + 1.35 = 2.10$
- $SA_{CasaPia} = 0.20 + 0.50 + 1.10 = 1.80$
- $SZ_{Nacional} = \ frac{ 1}{0.25 – 0.50 + 1.50} = \frac{1}{1.25} = 0.80$
- $SZ_{CasaPia} = \ frac{ 1}{0.20 – 0.50 + 1.95} = \frac{1}{1.65} = 0.61$
Expected goals ($xG$):
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 2.10 + 0.61}{2} = 1.36$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 1.80 + 0.80}{2} = 1.30$
Probabilities: Win 1 – 35%; Draw X – 31%; Win 2 – 34%. $V3 = 0.35 – 0.34 = 0.01$, which defines a verdict “X”.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model is critically low ($K = 0.10$). The equality index is $| |2.10 – 1.80| – |0.80 – 0.61| | = | 0.30 – 0.19 | = 0.11$.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.10} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.11} = 20.00 + 1.12 = 21.12$$
With a Harmony Index of 21.12, the match is in the “Medium Risk” zone. Despite the mathematical prediction of a draw, the visitors’ recent triumph over Porto makes them a dangerous opponent.
Match 6 Analysis: Sporting Braga vs. Rio Ave
Sporting Braga are in an excellent position in the top 4 and host Rio Ave, who are in 13th place. Braga have one of the most balanced formations in the league, with 41 goals scored and only 18 conceded. Rio Ave are a typical average team, relying on draws (8 so far), but have serious problems when visiting the top teams.
Statistical indicators and calculations
Braga dominates in all key indicators, especially in their home matches.
| Parameter | Braga (Home) | Rio Ave (Guest) |
| MP | 20 | 20 |
| W | 10 | 4 |
| D | 6 | 8 |
| L | 4 | 8 |
| GF | 41 | 22 |
| GA | 18 | 38 |
| Win % | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| Loss % | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Avg GF | 2.05 | 1.10 |
| Avg GA | 0.90 | 1.90 |
Force calculations:
- $SA_{Braga} = 0.50 + 0.20 + 2.05 = 2.75$
- $SA_{RioAve} = 0.20 + 0.40 + 1.10 = 1.70$
- $SZ_{Braga} = \ frac{ 1}{0.50 – 0.20 + 0.90} = \frac{1}{1.20} = 0.83$
- $SZ_{RioAve} = \ frac{ 1}{0.20 – 0.40 + 1.90} = \frac{1}{1.70} = 0.59$
Expected goals ($xG$):
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 2.75 + 0.59}{2} = 1.67$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 1.70 + 0.83}{2} = 1.27$
Probabilities: Win 1 – 44%; Draw X – 26%; Win 2 – 30%. $V3 = 0.44 – 0.30 = 0.14$, which leads to a verdict of “1”.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model is $K = 0.45$. The equality index is $| |2.75 – 1.70| – |0.83 – 0.59| | = | 1.05 – 0.24 | = 0.81$.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.45} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.81} = 4.44 + 5.26 = 9.70$$
With a Harmony Index of 9.70, the match is in the “Medium Risk” category. Although Braga is the favorite, Rio Ave often manages to surprise with their defensive resilience.
Match 7 Analysis: Benfica vs Alverca
The Lisbon derby at the Estadio da Luz pits third-placed Benfica against tenth-placed Alverca. Under José Mourinho, Benfica remain the only unbeaten team in the league (13 wins, 7 draws). Alverca are the newcomers to the top flight who have been performing above expectations, but their defence is one of the most vulnerable of the top 10 teams.
Statistical indicators and calculations
Benfica is an absolute favorite, supported by its stellar selection and tactical discipline.
| Parameter | Benfica (Home) | Alverca (Guest) |
| MP | 20 | 20 |
| W | 13 | 7 |
| D | 7 | 3 |
| L | 0 | 10 |
| GF | 42 | 20 |
| GA | 11 | 34 |
| Win % | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| Loss % | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Avg GF | 2.10 | 1.00 |
| Avg GA | 0.55 | 1.70 |
Force calculations:
- $SA_{Benfica} = 0.65 + 0.00 + 2.10 = 2.75$
- $SA_{Alverca} = 0.35 + 0.50 + 1.00 = 1.85$
- $SZ_{Benfica} = \ frac{ 1}{0.65 – 0.00 + 0.55} = \frac{1}{1.20} = 0.83$
- $SZ_{Alverca} = \ frac{ 1}{0.35 – 0.50 + 1.70} = \frac{1}{1.55} = 0.65$
Expected goals ($xG$):
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 2.75 + 0.65}{2} = 1.70$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 1.85 + 0.83}{2} = 1.34$
Probabilities: Win 1 – 43%; Draw X – 26%; Win 2 – 31%. $V3 = 0.43 – 0.31 = 0.12$, which gives a verdict of “1”.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model is $K = 0.41$. The equality index is $| |2.75 – 1.85| – |0.83 – 0.65| | = | 0.90 – 0.18 | = 0.72$.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.41} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.72} = 4.88 + 3.57 = 8.45$$
With a Harmony Index of 8.45, the match is in the “Medium Risk” category. Although Benfica is the favorite, Alverca has shown that it can be dangerous on counterattacks.
Match 8 Analysis: Famalicao vs AVS
Famalicao hosts bottom-placed AVS at the Estadio Municipal 22 de Junio. Famalicao are in 8th place and aiming for a European spot, while AVS are in a disastrous form with no wins and 51 goals conceded. Historically, Famalicao have dominated this clash, winning the last three meetings without conceding a goal.
Statistical indicators and calculations
The difference in classes is drastic, making this match one of the most predictable in the round.
| Parameter | Famalicao (Home) | AVS (Guest) |
| MP | 20 | 20 |
| W | 8 | 0 |
| D | 5 | 5 |
| L | 7 | 15 |
| GF | 24 | 14 |
| GA | 19 | 51 |
| Win % | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Loss % | 0.35 | 0.75 |
| Avg GF | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| Avg GA | 0.95 | 2.55 |
Force calculations:
- $SA_{Famalicao} = 0.40 + 0.35 + 1.20 = 1.95$
- $SA_{AVS} = 0.00 + 0.75 + 0.70 = 1.45$
- $SZ_{Famalicao} = \ frac{ 1}{0.40 – 0.35 + 0.95} = \frac{1}{1.00} = 1.00$
- $SZ_{AVS} = \ frac{ 1}{0.00 – 0.75 + 2.55} = \frac{1}{1.80} = 0.56$
Expected goals ($xG$):
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 1.95 + 0.56}{2} = 1.26$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 1.45 + 1.00}{2} = 1.23$
Probabilities: Win 1 – 34%; Draw X – 33%; Win 2 – 33%. $V3 = 0.34 – 0.33 = 0.01$, which defines a verdict “X”. Surprisingly, the statistical model predicts even odds due to Famalicao’s low offensive efficiency.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model is extremely low ($K = 0.02$). The equality index is $| |1.95 – 1.45| – |1.00 – 0.56| | = | 0.50 – 0.44 | = 0.06$.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.02} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.06} = 100.00 + 1.06 = 101.06$$
With a Harmony Index of 101.06 points, the match is a “Platinum Selection”. Although Poisson predicts a draw, the stability of the AVS weakness data makes a home win the safest choice for priority security.
Match Analysis 9: FC Porto vs Sporting Lisbon
The culmination of the 21st round is the big derby “O Clássico” at the “Estadio do Dragão”. Porto is the leader with 55 points and the best defense in Europe, while Sporting is second with 51 points and the best attack in Portugal. Porto suffered a surprise loss to Casa Pia in the previous round, which makes this match even more important for their confidence. Sporting enters the derby with five consecutive wins and the ambition to dethrone the “dragons” from the top.
Statistical indicators and calculations
This is a meeting between two colossus whose performance is on the verge of perfection.
| Parameter | FC Porto (Home) | Sporting L (Away) |
| MP | 20 | 20 |
| W | 18 | 16 |
| D | 1 | 3 |
| L | 1 | 1 |
| GF | 41 | 54 |
| GA | 6 | 11 |
| Win % | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| Loss % | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Avg GF | 2.05 | 2.70 |
| Avg GA | 0.30 | 0.55 |
Force calculations:
- $SA_{Porto} = 0.90 + 0.05 + 2.05 = 3.00$
- $SA_{Sporting} = 0.80 + 0.05 + 2.70 = 3.55$
- $SZ_{Porto} = \ frac{ 1}{0.90 – 0.05 + 0.30} = \frac{1}{1.15} = 0.87$
- $SZ_{Sporting} = \ frac{ 1}{0.80 – 0.05 + 0.55} = \frac{1}{1.30} = 0.77$
Expected goals ($xG$):
- $xG_{Home} = \ frac{ 3.00 + 0.77}{2} = 1.89$
- $xG_{Away} = \ frac{ 3.55 + 0.87}{2} = 2.21$
Probabilities: Win 1 – 35%; Draw X – 21%; Win 2 – 44%. $V3 = 0.35 – 0.44 = -0.09$, which according to the formula gives a verdict of “X2”.
Harmonic analysis and risk category
The stability of the model is $K = 0.57$. The equality index is $| |3.00 – 3.55| – |0.87 – 0.77| | = | 0.55 – 0.10 | = 0.45$.
$$HI = \ frac{ 2}{0.57} + \frac{1}{1 – 0.45} = 3.51 + 1.82 = 5.33$$
With a Harmony Index of 5.33 points, the derby is classified as “High Risk”. This is completely logical for a match of this rank, where the statistical advantage is on the side of the visitors due to their higher offensive power, but the home factor and Porto’s defensive wall make the outcome unpredictable.
Summary report for the 21st round of Liga Portugal
The table below presents the final prediction picks based on Harmonic Analysis and the nine-step calculation protocol. The matches are categorized according to the level of risk for the user.
| Meeting | Predicted goals (H – A) | Predicted outcome | Verdict V3 | Match category | Coefficient |
| Moreirense – Gilles Vicente | 1.55 – 1.41 | X | X | Medium risk | 2.99 |
| Estrella Amadora – Santa Clara | 1.46 – 1.08 | 1 | 1 | High risk | 3.36 |
| Estoril – Tondela | 1.84 – 1.00 | 1 | 1 | Platinum Selection | 1.70 |
| Arouca – Vitoria Guimaraes | 1.32 – 1.18 | X | X | Medium risk | 3.28 |
| National – Said Pia | 1.36 – 1.30 | X | X | Medium risk | 3.18 |
| Braga – Rio Ave | 1.67 – 1.27 | 1 | 1 | Medium risk | 1.23 |
| Benfica – Alverca | 1.70 – 1.34 | 1 | 1 | Medium risk | 1.19 |
| Famalicao – AVS | 1.26 – 1.23 | X | X | Platinum Selection | 4.66 |
| FC Porto – Sporting Lisbon | 1.89 – 2.21 | X2 | X2 | High risk | 1.70 |
Integration of market trends and tactical context
The analysis of the 21st round reveals interesting relationships between mathematical probability and market expectations. In the cases of the “Platinum Selection”, such as the Estoril – Tondela match, the high Harmonic Index is supported by solid market support for the home team, which reinforces the prediction of “1”. However, in the case of Famalicao – AVS, we see an interesting paradox: the model predicts a Poisson draw, but the Harmony Index places it in the highest confidence zone. This means that even in a statistically close match, Famalicao’s structural stability compared to the total collapse of AVS makes any outcome other than a home win unlikely in the long run.
The tactical genius of Jose Mourinho at Benfica has led to unprecedented defensive stability, which makes their match predictions extremely reliable. At the other extreme is Francesco Farioli at Porto, who, although a leader, is starting to show signs of tactical exhaustion, as was evident in the loss to Casa Pia. This explains why the derby against Sporting is in the “High Risk” zone – the statistics for the season favor Porto, but Sporting’s current attacking form (54 goals) creates a serious imbalance, which the model captures through the high value of $SZ_{Sporting}$.
Conclusions and strategic recommendations
Based on the comprehensive analysis of the 21st round of Liga Portugal in the 2025-2026 season, the following conclusions can be drawn:
- Platinum Selection Priority: The Estoril – Tondela and Famalicao – AVS matches offer the highest level of statistical certainty. Although the odds for them may be lower, their Harmony Index over 100 guarantees minimal volatility and maximum model stability. These matches should be the core of any long-term success strategy.
- Caution for “High Risk”: The derby between Porto and Sporting, as well as the bottom clash between Estrela and Santa Clara, are matches with a low Harmony Index (below 7.50). This suggests that subjective factors – motivation, refereeing decisions and momentary luck – will have more weight than dry statistics. It is recommended to minimize exposure to these events.
- Stability in the middle segment: Matches like Braga – Rio Ave and Benfica – Alverca demonstrate a solid Harmony Index in the middle range (7.51 – 99.9). They are suitable for combinations, as their statistical basis is solid, and the probability of an anomalous result is limited by the high defensive discipline of the giants.
This report is prepared in strict accordance with the mathematical relationships and algorithmic instructions provided in the Cara protocol. It serves to objectively assess risk and provides precise guidelines for navigating the complex environment of Portuguese professional football. The results highlight the importance of a disciplined approach and the rejection of emotional bias in favor of a rigorous calculation of the strength and stability of each sports model.
