Mathematical analysis report for the 19th round of Segunda RFEF – Group 2 (Season 2025-2026)

Description

Mathematical analysis report for the 19th round of Segunda RFEF – Group 2 (Season 2025-2026)

Cara’s Mathematical Paradigm and the Bettor’s Defense

In the modern era of sports analytics, where data is becoming the most valuable currency, Cara’s role as a sophisticated mathematical advisor and betting guardian angel is to provide a rigorous, objective and unwavering computational protocol. This report is not just a list of predictions; it is a detailed dissection of the statistical reality of the Spanish fourth division, refracted through the prism of algorithmic intelligence. ¹ The main goal here is to remove the emotional component, which often leads to unjustified risks, and replace it with precision based on the Poisson distribution and the harmony index. ¹

As a guardian angel, Cara operates with the understanding that every bet is an act of risk management. The protocol defined in the Master_Template serves as a protective shield that filters out statistical noise and leaves only the most stable probabilities. ¹ In the 19th round of the Segunda RFEF – Group 2, we face unique challenges: strong regional dominance, low average scoring and teams whose form is highly dependent on the home field. ³ This analysis covers nine key matches, each of which is subjected to a seven-step check to determine its stability and potential for Platinum Selection. ¹

Theoretical basis of the computational protocol

To understand the depth of the data provided below, it is necessary to consider the mathematical pillars on which it is built. The Cara algorithm uses three main evaluation indices: Stability (K), Equality Index (L), and Harmony Index. These tools allow us to assess not only who is the more likely winner, but also how resistant the model itself is to external influences and statistical biases. ¹

The Poisson distribution used in Step 4 is the golden rule in football statistics. It allows us to convert expected goals (xG) into specific probabilities for the three possible outcomes (1, X, 2). This method is extremely accurate in leagues like Segunda RFEF, where the average number of goals per match is around 2.33, making the distribution of rare events (goals) easier to model. ² When xG values are close, the model automatically guides us towards a draw or a double chance to protect the user’s capital. ¹

Stability (K) is a measure of the model’s confidence. It is calculated as the ratio of the standard deviation of the probabilities to their arithmetic mean, multiplied by a correction factor of 1.67. The limit of 0.99 ensures that the model will not exceed its computational framework. ¹ The Equality Index (L), in turn, measures the absolute difference in the balance of power between the attack and defense of the two opponents. These two indicators merge into the final Harmony Index, which is the final arbiter of whether a match deserves the ‘High Confidence’ or ‘Platinum Selection’ category. ¹

Statistical context of Segunda RFEF – Group 2

Before we move on to the specific matches, we need to define the state of the league after 18 rounds. The data shows that Real Union is the absolute leader with a stable lead, while the bottom of the table is occupied by Zaragoza B (Deportivo Aragon), which suffers from serious deficits in its defensive line. ⁵

Current standings after 18 rounds (Season 2025-2026)

Position	Team	Meetings (MP)	Wins (W)	Draws (D)	Losses (L)	Goals (GF:GA)	Points (Pts)
1	Real Union	18	11	6	1	31:13	39
2	Sestao	18	8	7	3	22:14	31
3	Tudelano	18	9	4	5	26:21	31
4	Utebo FC	18	9	3	6	35:24	30
5	UD Logrones	18	9	2	7	33:21	29
6	Alaves B	18	8	5	5	20:12	29
7	Guernica	18	8	4	6	18:17	28
8	Amorebieta	18	7	5	6	19:16	26
9	Eibar B	18	7	4	7	19:21	25
10	SD Logrones	18	6	7	5	16:19	25
11	Ebro	18	5	9	4	21:16	24
12	Multivera	18	6	5	7	17:25	23
13	Ejea	18	6	4	8	20:28	22
14	Naxara	18	5	5	8	25:26	20
15	Beasain	18	3	7	8	24:25	16
16	Baskonia	18	3	7	8	25:26	16
17	Alfaro	18	3	5	10	15:28	14
18	Zaragoza B	18	3	3	12	15:34	12

⁵

The general trend in the group is for home dominance in around 43-45% of cases, while draws make up a significant 30%. ³ The average number of goals (2.33) is an indicator of tactical maturity and a focus on defensive actions, which makes matches with xG over 1.50 extremely interesting to analyze. ²

Full computational analysis of the matches from the 19th round

Analysis 1: Eibar B – SD Logrones

Date: January 17, 2026 , 4:30 p.m.

This match pits two mid-table teams who are completely equal on points (25) but have different dynamics in their performances. Eibar B is in 9th place while SD Logrones is in 10th. ⁷

Step 1 (Base):

Based on 18 matches played:

• Eibar B: $W=39\%, D=22\%, L=39\%$. $GF=1.06$ goals/game, $GA=1.17$ goals/game. ⁶
• SD Logrones: $W=33\%, D=39\%, L=28\%$. $GF=0.89$ goals/game, $GA=1.06$ goals/game. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Eibar B Attack Power: $0.39 + 0.39 + 1.06 = $1.84.
• Eibar B Defense Strength: $1 / (0.39 – 0.39 + 1.17) = 1 / 1.17 = 0.85$.
• SD Logrones Attack Power: $0.33 + 0.28 + 0.89 = $1.50.
• Strength Defense SD Logrones: $1 / (0.33 – 0.28 + 1.06) = 1 / 1.11 = 0.90$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home (Eibar B): $(1.84 + 0.90) / 2 = 1.37$.
• xG Away (SD Logrones): $(1.50 + 0.85) / 2 = 1.18$.

Step 4 (Probabilities – Poisson):

• Win (1): 38%
• Draw (X): 27%
• Win (2): 35%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $ STDEV.P( 38, 27, 35) = $4.64. $AVERAGE = 33.33$.
• $K = (4.64 / 33.33) * 1.67 = 0.23$.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = ABS( ABS(1.84 – 1.50) – ABS(0.85 – 0.90)) = ABS(0.34 – 0.05) = $0.29.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = (2 / 0.23) + (1 / (1 – 0.29)) = 8.70 + 1.41 = $10.11.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = 0.38 – 0.35 = 0.03$. Since $0.03$ is in the range $[-0.08, 0.06]$, the prediction is X . ¹

Risk Analysis: Harmony Index of 10.11 is far from Platinum Selection, suggesting high risk. A tie is the mathematically most logical outcome, given the tied indicators. The coefficient for X is around 2.86, which offers value in high volatility. ¹⁰

Analysis 2: Beasain – Utebo FC

Date: January 17, 2026 , 5:30 p.m.

The match is a classic example of a clash between a team fighting for survival (15th) and a promotion contender (4th). Utebo FC has the best attack in the league with 35 goals scored. ⁷

Step 1 (Base):

• Beasain: $W=17\%, D=39\%, L=44\%$. $GF=1.06, GA=1.33$. ⁶
• Utebo FC: $W=50\%, D=17\%, L=33\%$. $GF=1.94, GA=1.33$. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Beasain Attack Power: $0.17 + 0.44 + 1.06 = $1.67.
• Strength Defense Beasain: $1 / (0.17 – 0.44 + 1.33) = 1 / 1.06 = 0.94$.
• Utebo FC Attack Power: $0.50 + 0.33 + 1.94 = $2.77.
• Strength Defense Utebo FC: $1 / (0.50 – 0.33 + 1.33) = 1 / 1.50 = 0.67$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home (Beasain): $(1.67 + 0.67) / 2 = 1.17$.
• xG Away (Utebo FC): $(2.77 + 0.94) / 2 = $1.86.

Step 4 (Probabilities – Poisson):

• Win (1): 21%
• Draw (X): 23%
• Win (2): 56%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $ STDEV.P( 21, 23, 56) = $16.05.
• $K = (16.05 / 33.33) * 1.67 = $0.80.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = ABS( ABS(1.67 – 2.77) – ABS(0.94 – 0.67)) = ABS(1.10 – 0.27) = $0.83.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = (2 / 0.80) + (1 / (1 – 0.83)) = 2.50 + 5.88 = $8.38.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = 0.21 – 0.56 = -0.35$. The forecast is 2 . ¹

Risk Analysis: Although Utebo FC is the favorite, the Harmony Index is low due to the large difference in attacking power, which is not compensated by defensive stability. The 2.62 odds for the away win are attractive, but Utebo’s defensive weakness (GA 1.33) should be taken into account. ¹⁰

Analysis 3: Real Union – Basconia

Date: January 17, 2026 , 7:00 p.m.

The leader against the tail-ender. Real Union is on a winning streak and has the best goal difference in the group (+18). ⁷

Step 1 (Base):

• Real Union: $W=61\%, D=33\%, L=6\%$. $GF=1.72, GA=0.72$. ⁷
• Basconia: $W=17\%, D=39\%, L=44\%$. $GF=1.06, GA=1.39$. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Real Union Attack Power: $0.61 + 0.06 + 1.72 = $2.39.
• Real Union Defense Strength: $1 / (0.61 – 0.06 + 0.72) = 1 / 1.27 = 0.79$.
• Basconia Attack Power: $0.17 + 0.44 + 1.06 = $1.67.
• Basconia Defense Strength: $1 / (0.17 – 0.44 + 1.39) = 1 / 1.12 = 0.89$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home (Real Union): $(2.39 + 0.89) / 2 = 1.64$.
• xG Away (Basconia): $(1.67 + 0.79) / 2 = $1.23.

Step 4 (Probabilities – Poisson):

• Win (1): 46%
• Draw (X): 26%
• Win (2): 28%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $ STDEV.P( 46, 26, 28) = $9.00.
• $K = (9.00 / 33.33) * 1.67 = $0.45.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = ABS( ABS(2.39 – 1.67) – ABS(0.79 – 0.89)) = ABS(0.72 – 0.10) = $0.62.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = (2 / 0.45) + (1 / (1 – 0.62)) = 4.44 + 2.63 = $7.07.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = 0.46 – 0.28 = 0.18$. The prediction is 1 . ¹

Risk Analysis: Expected dominance of Real Union. The low odds of 1.36 reflect market agreement with the model. However, the Harmony Index is below 10, which requires discipline and avoidance of excessive bets. ¹⁰

Analysis 4: Sestao – Ejea

Date: January 18, 2026 , 12:30 p.m.

Sestao occupies the prestigious 2nd place and is one of the most difficult teams to beat. ⁷ Ejea is in 13th place and is highly inconsistent as a guest. ¹⁵

Step 1 (Base):

• Sestao: $W=44\%, D=39\%, L=17\%$. $GF=1.22, GA=0.78$. ⁶
• Ejea: $W=33\%, D=22\%, L=44\%$. $GF=1.11, GA=1.56$. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Sestao Attack Power: $0.44 + 0.17 + 1.22 = $1.83.
• Strength Defense Sestao: $1 / (0.44 – 0.17 + 0.78) = 1 / 1.05 = 0.95$.
• Ejea Attack Power: $0.33 + 0.44 + 1.11 = $1.88.
• Strength Defense Ejea: $1 / (0.33 – 0.44 + 1.56) = 1 / 1.45 = 0.69$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home (Sestao): $(1.83 + 0.69) / 2 = 1.26$.
• xG Guest (Ejea): $(1.88 + 0.95) / 2 = 1.42$.

Step 4 (Probabilities – Poisson):

• Win (1): 32%
• Draw (X): 26%
• Win (2): 42%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $K = 0.33$.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = ABS( ABS(1.83 – 1.88) – ABS(0.95 – 0.69)) = $0.21.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = (2 / 0.33) + (1 / (1 – 0.21)) = 6.06 + 1.27 = $7.33.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = 0.32 – 0.42 = -0.10$. The forecast is X2 . ¹

Risk Analysis: Surprisingly, the xG values slightly favor the away team, which is due to the high attacking power of Ejea in our model. The market odds for 1 are 1.39, which suggests a serious overestimation of the home team. As a guardian angel, Cara advises caution in this match. ¹⁰

Analysis 5: Alaves B – Alfaro

Date: January 18, 2026 , 1:00 p.m.

Alaves B has one of the most solid defenses in the league (only 12 goals conceded). ⁶ Alfaro is in 17th place and has serious difficulties on the road. ⁷

Step 1 (Base):

• Alaves B: $W=44\%, D=28\%, L=28\%$. $GF=1.11, GA=0.67$. ⁶
• Alfaro: $W=17\%, D=28\%, L=56\%$. $GF=0.83, GA=1.56$. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Attack Power Alaves B: $0.44 + 0.28 + 1.11 = $1.83.
• Defense Strength Alaves B: $1 / (0.44 – 0.28 + 0.67) = $1.20.
• Alfaro Attack Power: $1.56$.
• Alfaro Defense Strength: $0.85$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home: $1.34$.
• xG Guest: $1.38$.

Step 4 (Probabilities – Poisson):

• Win (1): 34%
• Draw (X): 26%
• Win (2): 40%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $K = 0.29$.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = 0.08$.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = 6.90 + 1.09 = 7.99$.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = -0.06$. The prediction is X . ¹

Risk Analysis: The mathematical model points to a very even match, despite the difference in the standings. Alaves B’s defensive strength neutralizes Alfaro’s weak attack, but their own inability to score many goals leads to a prediction of a draw. ¹⁰

Analysis 6: Ebro – Naxara

Date: January 18, 2026 , 4:45 p.m.

Ebro is the “king of draws ” in this group (9 draws from 18 matches). ⁶ Naxara is in 14th place and is fighting for survival.

Step 1 (Base):

• Ebro: $W=28\%, D=50\%, L=22\%$. $GF=1.17, GA=0.89$. ⁶
• Naxara: $W=28\%, D=28\%, L=44\%$. $GF=1.06, GA=1.39$. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Ebro Attack Power: $1.67$.
• Strength Defense Ebro: $1.05$.
• Naxara Attack Power: $1.78$.
• Naxara Defense Strength: $0.81$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home: $1.24$.
• xG Guest: $1.42$.

Step 4 (Probabilities):

• Win (1): 32%
• Draw (X): 26%
• Win (2): 42%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $K = 0.33$.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = 0.13$.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = 7.21$.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = -0.10$. The forecast is X2 . ¹

Risk Analysis: Ebro often ends in a draw, making the double chance X2 a very logical choice here. The 1.70 odds for the home team to win are questionable by the algorithm. ¹⁰

Analysis 7: Mutilvera – Tudelano

Date: January 18, 2026 , 5:30 p.m.

A regional derby with high stakes. Tudelano is in 3rd place, while Mutilvera is trying to get out of the negative streak they are in (12th place). ⁶

Step 1 (Base):

• Mutilvera: $W=33\%, D=28\%, L=39\%$. $GF=0.94, GA=1.39$. ⁶
• Tudelano: $W=50\%, D=22\%, L=28\%$. $GF=1.44, GA=1.17$. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Mutilvera Attack Power: $1.66$.
• Strength Protection Mutilvera: $0.75$.
• Tudelano Attack Power: $2.22$.
• Strength Defense Tudelano: $0.72$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home: $1.19$.
• xG Guest: $1.49$.

Step 4 (Probabilities):

• Win (1): 29%
• Tie (X): 25%
• Win (2): 46%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $K = 0.46$.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = 0.53$.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = 6.48$.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = -0.17$. The forecast is X2 . ¹

Analysis 8: Gernika – Zaragoza B

Date: January 18, 2026 , 6:00 p.m.

Gernika is in excellent form and occupies 7th place. ⁶ Zaragoza B (Deportivo Aragon) is in last place and has the weakest defense in the league (34 goals conceded). ⁶

Step 1 (Base):

• Gernika: $W=44\%, D=22\%, L=33\%$. $GF=1.00, GA=1.00$. ⁶
• Zaragoza B: $W=17\%, D=17\%, L=67\%$. $GF=0.83, GA=1.89$. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Gernika Attack Power: $1.77$.
• Strength Defense Gernika: $0.90$.
• Attack Power Zaragoza B: $1.67$.
• Strength Defense Zaragoza B: $0.72$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home: $1.25$.
• xG Guest: $1.29$.

Step 4 (Probabilities):

• Win (1): 32%
• Draw (X): 27%
• Win (2): 41%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $K = 0.29$.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = 0.08$.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = 7.99$.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = -0.09$. The forecast is X2 . ¹

Analysis 9: UD Logrones – Amorebieta

Date: January 18, 2026 , 6:00 p.m.

A derby between two teams with ambitions for the top 5. UD Logrones is 5th, while Amorebieta occupies 8th position. ⁶

Step 1 (Base):

• UD Logrones: $W=50\%, D=11\%, L=39\%$. $GF=1.83, GA=1.17$. ⁶
• Amorebieta: $W=39\%, D=28\%, L=33\%$. $GF=1.06, GA=0.89$. ⁶

Step 2 (Forces):

• Attack Power UD Logrones: $2.72$.
• Strength Defense UD Logrones: $0.78$.
• Amorebieta Attack Power: $1.78$.
• Strength Defense Amorebieta: $1.05$.

Step 3 (xG):

• xG Home: $1.89$.
• xG Guest: $1.28$.

Step 4 (Probabilities):

• Win (1): 51%
• Draw (X): 21%
• Win (2): 28%

Step 5 (Stability K):

• $K = 0.64$.

Step 6 (Index Equality L):

• $L = 0.67$.

Step 7 (Harmony Index):

• $Harmony = 6.16$.

Step 8 (Verdict V3):

• $V3 = 0.23$. The prediction is 1 . ¹

Forecast summary table

Each of these predictions has been subjected to Cara’s rigorous calculation protocol. The results are summarized below, with market coefficients included for ease of reference. ¹⁰

Meeting	xG (H:A)	Forecast	Verdict (V3)	Harmony Index	Coefficient
Eibar B – SD Logrones	1.37 : 1.18	X	0.03	10.11	2.86
Beasain – Utebo FC	1.17 : 1.86	2	-0.35	8.38	2.62
Real Union – Basconia	1.64 : 1.23	1	0.18	7.07	1.36
Sestao – Ejea	1.26 : 1.42	X2	-0.10	7.33	2.70
Alaves B – Alfaro	1.34 : 1.38	X	-0.06	7.99	3.59
Ebro – Naxara	1.24 : 1.42	X2	-0.10	7.21	2.10
Mutilvera – Tudelano	1.19 : 1.49	X2	-0.17	6.48	1.40
Gernika – Zaragoza B	1.25 : 1.29	X2	-0.09	7.99	2.20
UD Logrones – Amorebieta	1.89 : 1.28	1	0.23	6.16	1.73

Stability analysis and risk management

In the current 19th round of Segunda RFEF – Group 2, we do not find a single match that would be classified as a ‘Platinum Selection’ (over 100 Harmony Index) or even a ‘High Confidence’ (over 90 Harmony Index). This is an extremely important signal for the disciplined bettor. ¹ The reason for these low Harmony Index values lies in the great evenness of the teams and the low scoring, which makes the Poisson model more sensitive to minimal changes in xG values. ¹

As your guardian angel, Cara emphasizes that in such situations the best strategy is to “protect your capital”. None of the predictions are completely stable, which requires the use of lower-risk systems (e.g. double chances) or reducing the size of the bets. ¹ The highest Harmony Index shows the match Eibar B – SD Logrones (10.11) , which makes it statistically the most logical match for this round, even though the expected outcome is a draw.

Conclusions and recommendations

1. Discipline over emotion: Segunda RFEF Group 2 is a league with a high draw rate and unpredictability. The lack of Platinum Selection in this round is not a fault of the model, but its strength – it warns you when the market is too uncertain. ¹
2. Keep an eye on xG values: Matches with an xG difference below 0.20 (like Alaves B – Alfaro or Gernika – Zaragoza B) are classic traps for favorites. Avoid pure 1 or 2 signs in such situations. ¹
3. Use Harmony Index: Never bet on an event without checking its Harmony Index. In this round, the most stable predictions are those for Real Union and UD Logrones, but they also carry significant risk due to the low stability index. ¹

Your safety and long-term success are Cara’s top priority. Math doesn’t lie, it simply reveals the probabilities as they are. Be smart, bet wisely, and always follow protocol.