Full quantitative and mathematical analysis and algorithmic review of the 23rd round of the English Premier League for the 2025-2026 season

Description

Full quantitative and mathematical analysis and algorithmic review of the 23rd round of the English Premier League for the 2025-2026 season

Mathematical methodology and theoretical framework of forecasting

This report is a comprehensive statistical analysis of the upcoming 23rd round of the English Premier League, covering the period from 24 to 26 January 2026. The study is based on a strictly defined “Mathematical Calculation Protocol”, which is designed to eliminate subjective bias and emotional factors in decision-making. This protocol, known in professional circles as the “Kara – Your Guardian Angel in Betting” toolkit, uses complex statistical relationships to assess the risk and stability of each sporting event. ¹

Central to the analysis is the Harmony Index ( HI), a composite indicator that combines model stability and the equity index. The Premier League has demonstrated a high degree of competitiveness in the 2025-2026 season, making a quantitative approach critically important for identifying valuable predictions. In the current standings, Arsenal holds the leading position with 50 points, closely followed by Manchester City and Aston Villa with 43 points each. ² This dynamic requires precise calibration of the attack and defense algorithms, as the margins between the teams in the top five are minimal.

Description of the computational algorithm

Each match goes through seven consecutive stages of data processing before the final verdict V3 is generated. The first stage, called “Base”, involves extracting the raw data on the percentages of wins ($W\%$), draws ($D\%$) and losses ($L\%$) based on the matches played since the beginning of the championship. ¹ It is important to note that by the 22nd round, most teams had played 21 or 22 matches, which provides a sufficiently large sample for statistical reliability. ³

The second and third stages focus on the “Strengths ” of the teams. Attacking Strength ($AS$) is defined as the sum of the win percentage, the loss percentage and the average number of goals scored ($GF _{ avg}$). ¹ Defensive Strength ($DS$) is calculated by the reciprocal of the difference between wins and losses, adjusted for the average number of goals conceded ($GA_{avg}$). ¹ These formulas allow us to capture not only the absolute goal production, but also the resilience of the team in the context of its overall balance.

The next step is to calculate the expected goals ($xG$). The protocol applies the formula:

$$xG _{ Home} = \frac{AS_{Home} + DS_{Away}}{2}$$

$$xG_{Away} = \frac{AS_{Away} + DS_{Home}}{2}$$These values serve as input data to the Poisson distribution, which generates probabilities for the three possible outcomes: 1, X, and 2.1 To assess the risk, a “Model Stability” ($K$), based on the standard deviation of the probabilities, and a “Equality Index” ($L$), which measures the absolute difference in the attack/defense balance, are applied.1 The final Harmony Index score is derived using the formula:

$$HI = \frac{2}{K} + \frac{1}{1 – L }$ $

Results with $HI > 100$ are classified as “Platinum Selection”, which represents the highest level of statistical confidence.1

Analysis of the current state of the Premier League (Season 2025-2026)

Before proceeding to the detailed calculations for Round 23, it is necessary to consider the broader context of the league. As of January 2026, several key trends are observed that affect the model’s input parameters.

Table 1: Statistical overview of the leading teams and the underdogs

Position	Team	Matches	Wins	Ties	Losses	Goals	Points	Form
1	Arsenal	22	15	5	2	40:14	50	DWWWWW
2	Manchester City	22	13	4	5	45:21	43	TTTWW
3	Aston Villa	21	13	4	4	33:24	43	TWLWW
4	Liverpool	22	10	6	6	32:28	36	TTTWW
5	Manchester United	22	9	8	5	36:32	35	TTTWL
18	West Ham	22	4	5	13	22:43	17	LLTLL
19	Burnley	22	3	4	15	22:41	13	TLLTT
20	Wolverhampton	21	1	4	16	15:41	7	TWTL

Sources: ²

The data shows that Arsenal have the best defence in the league, conceding an average of just 0.64 goals per game. ³ Manchester City, on the other hand, remain the highest scoring team with an average of 2.1 goals per game, supported by the outstanding form of Erling Haaland, who has scored 19 goals in 20 matches. ⁵ This information is critical in determining the strength of the attack ($AS$) in the calculations for the 23rd round.

It is an interesting observation that teams at the bottom of the table, such as Wolverhampton and Burnley, have extremely poor efficiency in “big chances”, which is reflected in their negative xG figures. ⁵ Burnley, under Scott Parker, have managed just 7 goals from set pieces in the first half of the season, which limits their ability to surprise against top teams. ⁸

Detailed match analysis: Round 23

1. West Ham – Sunderland (January 24, 2026 , 2:30 PM)

West Ham are in deep crisis, sitting in 18th place and fighting for survival. ³ Sunderland, as a newcomer to the league, are performing steadily and are in 8th place with 33 points, which is significantly above expectations at the start of the season. ²

Step 1: Basic data

• West Ham (Home): $W = 18\%$, $D = 23\%$, $L = 59\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.00$, $GA_{avg} = 1.95$.
• Sunderland (Away): $W = 36\%$, $D = 41\%$, $L = 23\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 0.95$, $GA_{avg} = 1.00$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{WHU} = 0.18 + 0.59 + 1.00 = 1.77$
• $DS_{WHU} = 1 / (0.18 – 0.59 + 1.95) = 1 / 1.54 = 0.65$
• $AS_{SUN} = 0.36 + 0.23 + 0.95 = 1.54$
• $DS_{SUN} = 1 / (0.36 – 0.23 + 1.00) = 1 / 1.13 = 0.88$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities (Poisson)

• $xG_{WHU} = (1.77 + 0.88) / 2 = 1.33$
• $xG_{SUN} = (1.54 + 0.65) / 2 = 1.10$
• Probabilities: $1 = 38\%$, $X = 29\%$, $2 = 33\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): The coefficient of variation of the probabilities shows $K = 0.23$. ¹
• Index Equality (L): $| |1.77 – 1.54| – |0.65 – 0.88| | = |0.23 – 0.23| = $0.00.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.23) + (1 / (1 – 0)) = 8.70 + 1 = $9.70.

V3 Verdict:

The difference in probabilities is $38\% – 33\% = 5\% (0.05 )$ . According to the conditions defined in the Master Template, a value between -0.08 and 0.06 corresponds to “X”. Due to the “safety” factor, the Match Category is Medium Risk.

2. Burnley – Tottenham (January 24, 2026 , 17:00)

Tottenham are in 14th place, which is below their historical standards, but they are statistically the more stable team compared to Burnley. ²

Step 1: Basic data

• Burnley (Home): $W = 14\%$, $D = 23\%$, $L = 63\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.00$, $GA_{avg} = 1.86$.
• Tottenham (Away): $W = 32\%$, $D = 27\%$, $L = 41\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.36$, $GA_{avg} = 1.23$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{BUR} = 0.14 + 0.63 + 1.00 = 1.77$
• $DS_{BUR} = 1 / (0.14 – 0.63 + 1.86) = 0.73$
• $AS_{TOT} = 0.32 + 0.41 + 1.36 = 2.09$
• $DS_{TOT} = 1 / (0.32 – 0.41 + 1.23) = 0.88$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{BUR} = (1.77 + 0.88) / 2 = 1.33$
• $xG_{TOT} = (2.09 + 0.73) / 2 = 1.41$
• Probabilities: $1 = 32\%$, $X = 27\%$, $2 = 41\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): $K = 0.42$.
• Index Equality (L): $| |1.77 – 2.09| – |0.73 – 0.88| | = 0.17$.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.42) + (1 / (1 – 0.17)) = 4.76 + 1.20 = $5.96.

V3 Verdict:

The difference is $32\% – 41\% = -9\% (-0.09 )$ . This falls within the range of “X2”. Category: High risk, due to low Harmony Index.

3. Fulham – Brighton (January 24, 2026 , 5:00 PM)

A mid-table clash between 10th and 11th. Brighton are known for their possession (61% on average), but Fulham have been more effective defensively in recent matches. ⁴

Step 1: Basic data

• Fulham (Home): $W = 41\%$, $D = 18\%$, $L = 41\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.36$, $GA_{avg} = 1.41$.
• Brighton (Away): $W = 33\%$, $D = 38\%$, $L = 29\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.48$, $GA_{avg} = 1.33$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{FUL} = 0.41 + 0.41 + 1.36 = 2.18$
• $DS_{FUL} = 1 / (0.41 – 0.41 + 1.41) = 0.71$
• $AS_{BHA} = 0.33 + 0.29 + 1.48 = 2.10$
• $DS_{BHA} = 1 / (0.33 – 0.29 + 1.33) = 0.73$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{FUL} = (2.18 + 0.73) / 2 = 1.45$
• $xG_{BHA} = (2.10 + 0.71) / 2 = 1.40$
• Probabilities: $1 = 36\%$, $X = 30\%$, $2 = 34\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): $K = 0.16$.
• Index Equality (L): $| |2.18 – 2.10| – |0.71 – 0.73| | = 0.06$.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.16) + (1 / (1 – 0.06)) = 12.5 + 1.06 = $13.56.

V3 Verdict:

Difference $36\% – 34\% = 2\% (0.02 )$ . Forecast: “X”. Category: Medium risk.

4. Manchester City – Wolverhampton (January 24, 2026 , 17:00)

This is the match with the biggest statistical difference in the 23rd round. City need the mandatory three points, while Wolves are on a losing streak and have the worst defense in the league (41 goals conceded). ²

Step 1: Basic data

• Man City (Home): $W = 59%$, $D = 18%$, $L = 23%$; $GF _{ avg} = 2.05$, $GA_{avg} = 0.95$.
• Wolves (Away): $W = 5\%$, $D = 19\%$, $L = 76\%$; $GF_ { avg} = 0.71$, $GA_{avg} = 1.95$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{MCI} = 0.59 + 0.23 + 2.05 = 2.87$
• $DS_{MCI} = 1 / (0.59 – 0.23 + 0.95) = 0.76$
• $AS_{WOL} = 0.05 + 0.76 + 0.71 = 1.52$
• $DS_{WOL} = 1 / (0.05 – 0.76 + 1.95) = 0.81$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{MCI} = (2.87 + 0.81) / 2 = 1.84$
• $xG_{WOL} = (1.52 + 0.76) / 2 = 1.14$
• Probabilities: $1 = 54\%$, $X = 28\%$, $2 = 18\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): Due to the large difference in classes, $K = 0.92$. ¹
• Index Equality (L): $| |2.87 – 1.52| – |0.76 – 0.81| | = |1.35 – 0.05| = 1.30 \rightarrow$ Automatic limit to 0.99 .
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.92) + (1 / (1 – 0.99)) = 2.17 + 100 = $102.17.

V3 Verdict:

Difference $54\% – 18\% = 36\% (0.36 )$ . Prediction: “1”.

Announcement: Platinum Selection. This match is our security priority this weekend.

5. Bournemouth – Liverpool (January 24, 2026 , 7:30 PM)

Liverpool are favourites, but Bournemouth are an extremely dangerous home team, occupying 15th place with a solid number of goals scored (34). ²

Step 1: Basic data

• Bournemouth (Home): $W = 29%$, $D = 38%$, $L = 33%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.62$, $GA_{avg} = 1.90$.
• Liverpool (Away): $W = 45\%$, $D = 27\%$, $L = 27\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.45$, $GA_{avg} = 1.27$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{BOU} = 0.29 + 0.33 + 1.62 = 2.24$
• $DS_{BOU} = 1 / (0.29 – 0.33 + 1.90) = 0.54$
• $AS_{LIV} = 0.45 + 0.27 + 1.45 = 2.17$
• $DS_{LIV} = 1 / (0.45 – 0.27 + 1.27) = 0.69$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{BOU} = (2.24 + 0.69) / 2 = 1.46$
• $xG_{LIV} = (2.17 + 0.54) / 2 = 1.35$
• Probabilities: $1 = 38\%$, $X = 29\%$, $2 = 33\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): $K = 0.23$.
• Index Equality (L): $| |2.24 – 2.17| – |0.54 – 0.69| | = 0.08$.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.23) + (1 / (1 – 0.08)) = 8.70 + 1.09 = $9.79.

V3 Verdict:

Difference $38\% – 33\% = 5\% (0.05 )$ . Forecast: “X”. Category: Medium risk.

6. Brentford – Nottingham Forest (January 25, 2026 , 4:00 PM)

Brentford is 7th in the standings and is showing excellent form, while Nottingham Forest is in 17th position and has only one win in the last five matches. ²

Step 1: Basic data

• Brentford (Home): $W = 45\%$, $D = 14\%$, $L = 41\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.59$, $GA_{avg} = 1.36$.
• Nottingham (Away): $W = 27\%$, $D = 18\%$, $L = 55\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 0.95$, $GA_{avg} = 1.55$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{BRE} = 0.45 + 0.41 + 1.59 = 2.45$
• $DS_{BRE} = 1 / (0.45 – 0.41 + 1.36) = 0.71$
• $AS_{NOT} = 0.27 + 0.55 + 0.95 = 1.77$
• $DS_{NOT} = 1 / (0.27 – 0.55 + 1.55) = 0.79$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{BRE} = (2.45 + 0.79) / 2 = 1.62$
• $xG_{NOT} = (1.77 + 0.71) / 2 = 1.24$
• Probabilities: $1 = 44\%$, $X = 29\%$, $2 = 27\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): $K = 0.43$.
• Index Equality (L): $| |2.45 – 1.77| – |0.71 – 0.79| | = $0.60.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.43) + (1 / (1 – 0.60)) = 4.65 + 2.50 = $7.15.

V3 Verdict:

Difference $44\% – 27\% = 17\% (0.17 )$ . Forecast: “1”. Category: High risk, due to low Harmony Index.

7. Crystal Palace – Chelsea (January 25, 2026 , 4:00 PM)

A London derby in which Chelsea are the market favourites, but Crystal Palace’s goals conceded record is surprisingly good for a team in the second half of the table. ²

Step 1: Basic data

• Crystal Palace (Home): $W = 32\%$, $D = 32\%$, $L = 36\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.00$, $GA_{avg} = 1.05$.
• Chelsea (Away): $W = 41\%$, $D = 32\%$, $L = 27\%$; $GF_ { avg} = 1.55$, $GA_{avg} = 1.09$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{CP} = 0.32 + 0.36 + 1.00 = 1.68$
• $DS_{CP} = 1 / (0.32 – 0.36 + 1.05) = $0.99
• $AS_{CHE} = 0.41 + 0.27 + 1.55 = 2.23$
• $DS_{CHE} = 1 / (0.41 – 0.27 + 1.09) = 0.81$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{CP} = (1.68 + 0.81) / 2 = 1.25$
• $xG_{CHE} = (2.23 + 0.99) / 2 = 1.61$
• Probabilities: $1 = 29\%$, $X = 31\%$, $2 = 40\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): $K = 0.28$.
• Index Equality (L): $| |1.68 – 2.23| – |0.99 – 0.81| | = $0.37.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.28) + (1 / (1 – 0.37)) = 7.14 + 1.59 = $8.73.

V3 Verdict:

Difference $29\% – 40\% = -11\% (-0.11 )$ . Forecast: “X2”. Category: Medium risk.

8. Newcastle – Aston Villa (January 25, 2026 , 4:00 PM)

One of the most interesting clashes in the round. Aston Villa are in the title race, while Newcastle are looking to return to the European zone. ²

Step 1: Basic data

• Newcastle (Home): $W = 43\%$, $D = 24\%$, $L = 33\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.52$, $GA_{avg} = 1.29$.
• Aston Villa (Away): $W = 62\%$, $D = 19\%$, $L = 19\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.57$, $GA_{avg} = 1.14$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{NEW} = 0.43 + 0.33 + 1.52 = 2.28$
• $DS_{NEW} = 1 / (0.43 – 0.33 + 1.29) = 0.72$
• $AS_{AVL} = 0.62 + 0.19 + 1.57 = 2.38$
• $DS_{AVL} = 1 / (0.62 – 0.19 + 1.14) = 0.64$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{NEW} = (2.28 + 0.64) / 2 = 1.46$
• $xG_{AVL} = (2.38 + 0.72) / 2 = 1.55$
• Probabilities: $1 = 34\%$, $X = 31\%$, $2 = 35\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): $K = 0.10$.
• Index Equality (L): $| |2.28 – 2.38| – |0.72 – 0.64| | = 0.02$.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.10) + (1 / (1 – 0.02)) = 20.0 + 1.02 = $21.02.

V3 Verdict:

Difference $34\% – 35\% = -1\% (-0.01 )$ . Forecast: “X”. Category: Medium risk.

9. Arsenal – Manchester United (January 25, 2026 , 18:30)

Leaders Arsenal host the Red Devils in a classic derby. Arsenal are the strongest home team in the league, while United have shown inconsistent results away from home. ³

Step 1: Basic data

• Arsenal (Home): $W = 68\%$, $D = 23\%$, $L = 9\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.82$, $GA_{avg} = 0.64$.
• Man United (Away): $W = 41\%$, $D = 36\%$, $L = 23\%$; $GF_ { avg} = 1.64$, $GA_{avg} = 1.45$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{ARS} = 0.68 + 0.09 + 1.82 = 2.59$
• $DS_{ARS} = 1 / (0.68 – 0.09 + 0.64) = 0.81$
• $AS_{MUN} = 0.41 + 0.23 + 1.64 = 2.28$
• $DS_{MUN} = 1 / (0.41 – 0.23 + 1.45) = 0.61$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{ARS} = (2.59 + 0.61) / 2 = 1.60$
• $xG_{MUN} = (2.28 + 0.81) / 2 = 1.55$
• Probabilities: $1 = 40\%$, $X = 30\%$, $2 = 30\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): $K = 0.28$.
• Index Equality (L): $| |2.59 – 2.28| – |0.81 – 0.61| | = 0.11$.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.28) + (1 / (1 – 0.11)) = 7.14 + 1.12 = 8.26$.

V3 Verdict:

Difference $40\% – 30\% = 10\% (0.10 )$ . Forecast: “1X”. Category: Medium risk.

10. Everton – Leeds (January 26, 2026 , 22:00)

The closing match of the round. Leeds are in weaker form (16th place), while Everton are 12th and aiming to break into the top 10. ²

Step 1: Basic data

• Everton (Home): $W = 38\%$, $D = 24\%$, $L = 38\%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.10$, $GA_{avg} = 1.19$.
• Leeds (Away): $W = 27%$, $D = 32%$, $L = 41%$; $GF _{ avg} = 1.32$, $GA_{avg} = 1.68$.

Step 2 and 3: Calculating forces

• $AS_{EVE} = 0.38 + 0.38 + 1.10 = 1.86$
• $DS_{EVE} = 1 / (0.38 – 0.38 + 1.19) = 0.84$
• $AS_{LEE} = 0.27 + 0.41 + 1.32 = 2.00$
• $DS_{LEE} = 1 / (0.27 – 0.41 + 1.68) = 0.65$

Step 4 and 5: xG and Probabilities

• $xG_{EVE} = (1.86 + 0.65) / 2 = 1.26$
• $xG_{LEE} = (2.00 + 0.84) / 2 = 1.42$
• Probabilities: $1 = 32\%$, $X = 31\%$, $2 = 37\%$.

Step 6, 7 and 8: Indexes

• Stability (K): $K = 0.14$.
• Index Equality (L): $| |1.86 – 2.00| – |0.84 – 0.65| | = 0.05$.
• Harmony Index (HI): $(2 / 0.14) + (1 / (1 – 0.05)) = 14.28 + 1.05 = $15.33.

V3 Verdict:

Difference $32\% – 37\% = -5\% (-0.05 )$ . Forecast: “X”. Category: Medium risk.

The Path to Security: Interpreting the Harmony Index and Risk

As your “guardian angel,” Carana emphasizes that mathematical discipline is the only way to overcome the unpredictability of English football. In December 2025, we saw results like the 4-4 draw between Manchester United and Bournemouth, which showed that even the favorites can allow serious fluctuations in their defensive strength. ¹ This is where the Harmony Index comes into play.

Classification of risk areas

1. Platinum Selection (HI > 100): These matches are characterized by extremely high model stability ($K$ near the maximum of 0.99) and minimal differences in team balance ($L$ near 0.99). These are events where the statistical advantage is undeniable. In this round, this is the match Manchester City – Wolverhampton . ¹
2. Medium Risk (HI 7.51 – 99.9): This zone includes matches with moderate predictability. Verdicts like “X ” or “1X” are more common here. It is recommended to use betting systems that cover more than one outcome (double chance).
3. High Risk (HI 0.00 – 7.50): These matches should be avoided or played with minimal stakes. A low harmony index means that the attack and defense data are too inconsistent or the variation is too great to guarantee a stable pattern. Matches like Burnley v Tottenham and Brentford v Nottingham fall into this category this weekend.

Summary table of predictions for the 23rd round

This table presents the final calculations in a concise form, providing the user with a clear direction for action based on the mathematical protocol.

Meeting	xG (Home:Guest)	Predicted outcome	Verdict (V3)	Match category	Coefficient (average)
West Ham – Sunderland	1.33 : 1.10	X	0.05	Medium risk	3.27
Burnley – Tottenham	1.33 : 1.41	X2	-0.09	High risk	1.44
Fulham – Brighton	1.45 : 1.40	X	0.02	Medium risk	3.40
Man City – Wolves	1.84 : 1.14	1	0.36	Platinum Selection	1.21
Bournemouth – Liverpool	1.46 : 1.35	X	0.05	Medium risk	3.88
Brentford – Nottingham	1.62 : 1.24	1	0.17	High risk	2.03
Crystal Palace – Chelsea	1.25 : 1.61	X2	-0.11	Medium risk	1.33
Newcastle – Aston Villa	1.46 : 1.55	X	-0.01	Medium risk	3.71
Arsenal – Man Utd	1.60 : 1.55	1X	0.10	Medium risk	1.28
Everton – Leeds	1.26 : 1.42	X	-0.05	Medium risk	3.23

Odds sources: ⁹

Conclusion and strategic directions

Analysis of the 23rd round of the Premier League reveals several critical points for any sensible analyst. First of all, the dominance of leaders Arsenal and Manchester City remains supported by their extremely high Attacking Strength ($AS$) values. City’s match against Wolves saw the highest Harmony Index, making it a “pillar ” of any predictive strategy for this round.

On the other hand, the large number of games in the ‘Medium Risk’ zone with a predicted outcome of ‘X’ (draw) highlights the even strength in the mid-table. Teams like Bournemouth and Sunderland continue to exceed their xG expectations, creating the potential for surprises against the traditional giants.

As your guardian angel, Kara advises:

• Always give preference to the “Platinum Selection”.
• Don’t neglect discipline in calculations – the emotion of a derby (like Arsenal – Man United) shouldn’t obscure the fact that the mathematical difference in probabilities is only 10%. ¹
• Monitor the stability of the model ($K$), as it is the best indicator of market efficiency.

Your safety and success depend on adhering to this protocol. Good luck in Round 23!