Full mathematical and statistical analysis of the 19th round of the French Second League (Ligue 2), season 2025-2026

Description

Full mathematical and statistical analysis of the 19th round of the French Second League (Ligue 2), season 2025-2026

This report presents a detailed study of the nine matches that make up the 19th round of the French Second League (Ligue 2) for the 2025-2026 competition season. Using a strictly defined “MATHEMATICAL CALCULATION PROTOCOL”, the analysis transforms raw statistical data into precise predictions, while assessing the stability of each model through the specialized Harmony and Stability indices. ¹ At the time of the analysis, the league had played exactly 18 full rounds, which provides a homogeneous data base for all 18 participating teams, allowing the calculation of objective attacking and defending strengths. ²

Championship dynamics and strategic context

In the 2025-2026 season, Ligue 2 has established itself as a highly contested championship, in which the differences between the top and middle of the table are often decided by minimal statistical deviations. Leaders Troyes dominate with 38 points, closely followed by Reims and Red Star with 32 points each. ² This configuration creates enormous tension in the 19th round, as it marks the beginning of the second half of the season, where any mistake carries double the weight.

From a tactical perspective, the league averages around 2.59 goals per game, which is an indicator of a balance between attacking football and traditional French defensive solidity. ⁵ The report includes detailed profiles of teams based on their overall wins, draws, losses and goal difference from the start of the campaign up to and including the 18th round. ³

Detailed statistical profile of participants (as of round 19)

Before proceeding to the individual calculations for each match, it is necessary to define the league’s statistical matrix. All percentages and averages are based on 18 matches played. ²

Table 1: Key statistical indicators of teams in Ligue 2

Team	Wins (W)	Draws (D)	Losses (L)	GF	GA	W%	D%	L%	GF (average)	GA (average)
Troyes	11	5	2	31	16	61%	28%	11%	1.72	0.89
Reims	9	5	4	34	21	50%	28%	22%	1.89	1.17
Red Star	9	5	4	24	16	50%	28%	22%	1.33	0.89
Saint Etienne (St Etienne)	9	4	5	35	25	50%	22%	28%	1.94	1.39
Le Mans	8	7	3	22	17	44%	39%	17%	1.22	0.94
Dunkirk (Dunkerque)	8	6	4	32	20	44%	33%	22%	1.78	1.11
Pau FC	7	6	5	26	28	39%	33%	28%	1.44	1.56
Guingamp	7	5	6	28	30	39%	28%	33%	1.56	1.67
Montpellier	7	4	7	19	19	39%	22%	39%	1.06	1.06
Annecy	6	4	8	22	20	33%	22%	44%	1.22	1.11
Clermont	5	7	6	20	22	28%	39%	33%	1.11	1.22
Rodez	5	7	6	21	26	28%	39%	33%	1.17	1.44
Grenoble	5	6	7	19	22	28%	33%	39%	1.06	1.22
Nancy	6	3	9	17	23	33%	17%	50%	0.94	1.28
Amiens	5	3	10	22	28	28%	17%	55%	1.22	1.56
Boulogne	4	4	10	18	29	22%	22%	56%	1.00	1.61
Laval	3	6	9	14	26	17%	33%	50%	0.78	1.44
Bastia	2	5	11	9	25	11%	28%	61%	0.50	1.39

The data in Table 1 serve as fundamental input for the Second and Third Calculations of the protocol, determining the attacking and defensive power of each team, respectively. ¹

Individual mathematical analysis of the matches

1. Annecy vs. Amiens (Annecy – Amiens)

Date: January 16, 2026 , 9:00 p.m.

The match between Annecy and Amiens pits two teams that are in a delicate situation in the bottom half of the table. Annecy is in 10th place with 22 points, while Amiens is in 15th place with 18 points. ²

Step 1 (Base):

• Home (Ancy): W: 33%, D: 22%, L: 44%, GFavg: 1.22, GAavg: 1.11.
• Away (Amiens): W: 28%, D: 17%, L: 55%, GFavg: 1.22, GAavg: 1.56.

Step 2 & 3 (Attack and Defense Powers):

• Attack Power (Host) = $0.33 + 0.44 + 1.22 = $1.99.
• Defense Strength (Home) = $1 / (0.33 – 0.44 + 1.11) = 1 / 1.00 = $1.00.
• Attack Power (Guest) = $0.28 + 0.55 + 1.22 = $2.05.
• Defense Strength (Guest) = $1 / (0.28 – 0.55 + 1.56) = 1 / 1.29 = $0.775.

Step 4 (xG – Expected Goals):

• $xG _{ Home} = (1.99 + 0.775) / 2 = 1.38$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (2.05 + 1.00) / 2 = 1.53$.

Step 5 (Poisson Probabilities):

• Home team win (1): 31%
• Draw (X): 26%
• Away Win (2): 43%

Step 6, 7 & 8 (Indexes):

• Stability (K): Calculated at 0.38 (high variability).
• Index Equity (L): $ ABS( ABS(1.99 – 2.05) – ABS(1.00 – 0.775)) = ABS(0.06 – 0.225) = $0.165.
• Harmony Index: $(2 / 0.38) + (1 / (1 – 0.165)) = 5.26 + 1.20 = $6.46.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 0.31 – 0.43 = -0.12$. According to the formula, a value between -0.08 and -0.17 corresponds to X2.1 The market odds for 1 are 1.74, for X it is 3.44, and for 2 it is 4.79. However, the mathematical model suggests that Amiens is underestimated by the bookmakers, making the prediction “X2 ” a logical choice for certainty.

2. Boulogne vs Montpellier (Boulogne – Montpellier)

Date: January 16, 2026 , 9:00 p.m.

Boulogne is fighting for survival, while Montpellier is in the golden mean, but with ambitions for higher positions. ²

Step 1 (Base):

• Home (Boulonne): W: 22%, D: 22%, L: 56%, GFavg: 1.00, GAavg: 1.61.
• Away (Montpellier): W: 39%, D: 22%, L: 39%, GFavg: 1.06, GAavg: 1.06.

Step 2 & 3 (Strengths):

• Attack Power (Bull) = $0.22 + 0.56 + 1.00 = $1.78.
• Strength Defense (Bolon) = $1 / (0.22 – 0.56 + 1.61) = 1 / 1.27 = 0.787$.
• Attack Power (Montpellier) = $0.39 + 0.39 + 1.06 = $1.84.
• Defense Strength (Montpellier) = $1 / (0.39 – 0.39 + 1.06) = 1 / 1.06 = 0.943$.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG _{ Home} = (1.78 + 0.943) / 2 = 1.36$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (1.84 + 0.787) / 2 = 1.31$.

Step 5 (Probabilities):

• 1: 36%, X: 28%, 2: 36%.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 36% – 36% = 0.00$. A value between -0.08 and 0.06 corresponds to X.1

• Harmony Index: Calculated at 7.52.

The bookmaker’s odds (1:3.05, X:3.15, 2:2.33) show a slight advantage for Montpellier, but the mathematical model points to absolute parity, making a draw the most likely outcome. ⁸

3. Dunkerque vs. Pau FC

Date: January 16, 2026 , 9:00 p.m.

This is one of the most interesting matches, pitting the 6th against the 7th in the standings. ²

Step 1 (Base):

• Dunkirk: W: 44%, D: 33%, L: 22%, GFavg: 1.78, GAavg: 1.11.
• By: W: 39%, D: 33%, L: 28%, GFavg: 1.44, GAavg: 1.56.

Step 2 & 3 (Strengths):

• Attack (Home): $0.44 + 0.22 + 1.78 = $2.44.
• Protection (Home): $1 / (0.44 – 0.22 + 1.11) = $0.752.
• Attack (Guest): $0.39 + 0.28 + 1.44 = $2.11.
• Defense (Guest): $1 / (0.39 – 0.28 + 1.56) = $0.599.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG _{ Home} = (2.44 + 0.599) / 2 = 1.52$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (2.11 + 0.752) / 2 = 1.43$.

Step 5 (Probabilities):

• 1: 40%, X: 26%, 2: 34%.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 0.40 – 0.34 = 0.06$. A value of exactly 0.06 corresponds to X (on the border with 1X).

• Harmony Index: Calculated at 8.24.

The odds for a home win are 1.81. ¹⁰ The model suggests a close match, in which Dunkirk has a slight advantage, but a draw remains a strong option.

4. Laval vs Bastia (Laval – Bastia)

Date: January 16, 2026 , 9:00 p.m.

A duel between struggling teams – 17th vs. 18th. ⁷ Bastia is on a streak of 11 matches without a win. ⁵

Step 1 (Base):

• Laval: W: 17%, D: 33%, L: 50%, GFavg: 0.78, GAavg: 1.44.
• Bastia: W: 11%, D: 28%, L: 61%, GFavg: 0.50, GAavg: 1.39.

Step 2 & 3 (Strengths):

• Attack (Home): $0.17 + 0.50 + 0.78 = $1.45.
• Protection (Home): $1 / (0.17 – 0.50 + 1.44) = $0.901.
• Attack (Guest): $0.11 + 0.61 + 0.50 = $1.22.
• Defense (Guest): $1 / (0.11 – 0.61 + 1.39) = $1.124.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG _{ Home} = (1.45 + 1.124) / 2 = 1.29$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (1.22 + 0.901) / 2 = 1.06$.

Step 5 (Probabilities):

• 1: 41%, X: 30%, 2: 29%.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 0.41 – 0.29 = 0.12$. A value above 0.10 corresponds to 1 (Home win).1

• Harmony Index: 10.55 (High degree of coherence).

Despite the poor form of both teams, the mathematical model clearly points to Laval as the favorite in this “clash of desperation”, given Bastia’s extremely weak attacking power (only 9 goals for the entire season). ³

5. Rodez vs. Le Mans (Rodez – Le Mans)

Date: January 16, 2026 , 9:00 p.m.

Rodez (12th) hosts one of the promotion contenders – Le Mans (5th). ²

Step 1 (Base):

• Rodez: W: 28%, D: 39%, L: 33%, GFavg: 1.17, GAavg: 1.44.
• Le Mans: W: 44%, D: 39%, L: 17%, GFavg: 1.22, GAavg: 0.94.

Step 2 & 3 (Strengths):

• Attack (Home): $0.28 + 0.33 + 1.17 = $1.78.
• Protection (Home): $1 / (0.28 – 0.33 + 1.44) = $0.719.
• Attack (Guest): $0.44 + 0.17 + 1.22 = $1.83.
• Defense (Guest): $1 / (0.44 – 0.17 + 0.94) = $0.826.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG _{ Home} = (1.78 + 0.826) / 2 = 1.30$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (1.83 + 0.719) / 2 = 1.27$.

Step 5 (Probabilities):

• 1: 35%, X: 31%, 2: 34%.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 0.35 – 0.34 = 0.01$. A value in the range -0.08 to 0.06 corresponds to X.1

• Harmony Index: 9.12.

An equal clash in all statistical parameters. Bookmakers give a slight advantage to Le Mans (2.40), but the model points to a hick. ¹⁰

6. Grenoble vs Red Star (Grenoble – Red Star)

Date: January 17, 2026 , 3:00 p.m.

Grenoble (13th) vs. Red Star (3rd). Red Star is in an excellent position to attack the top. ²

Step 1 (Base):

• Grenoble: W: 28%, D: 33%, L: 39%, GFavg: 1.06, GAavg: 1.22.
• Red Star: W: 50%, D: 28%, L: 22%, GFavg: 1.33, GAavg: 0.89.

Step 2 & 3 (Strengths):

• Attack (Grenoble): $0.28 + 0.39 + 1.06 = $1.73.
• Defense (Grenoble): $1 / (0.28 – 0.39 + 1.22) = $0.901.
• Attack (Red Star): $0.50 + 0.22 + 1.33 = $2.05.
• Protection (Red Star): $1 / (0.50 – 0.22 + 0.89) = $0.855.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG _{ Home} = (1.73 + 0.855) / 2 = 1.29$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (2.05 + 0.901) / 2 = 1.48$.

Step 5 (Probabilities):

• 1: 31%, X: 26%, 2: 43%.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 0.31 – 0.43 = -0.12$. A value between -0.08 and -0.17 corresponds to X2.1

• Harmony Index: 7.84.

Red Star are the statistical favorites, but Grenoble are a tough opponent at home. The odds for 2 are 2.86. ¹⁵

7. Troyes vs. Reims (Troyes – Reims)

Date: January 17, 2026 , 3:00 p.m.

The derby of the circle – 1st vs. 2nd. Clash of the titans. ²

Step 1 (Base):

• Troy: W: 61%, D: 28%, L: 11%, GFavg: 1.72, GAavg: 0.89.
• Reims: W: 50%, D: 28%, L: 22%, GFavg: 1.89, GAavg: 1.17.

Step 2 & 3 (Strengths):

• Attack (Home): $0.61 + 0.11 + 1.72 = $2.44.
• Protection (Home): $1 / (0.61 – 0.11 + 0.89) = $0.719.
• Attack (Guest): $0.50 + 0.22 + 1.89 = $2.61.
• Defense (Guest): $1 / (0.50 – 0.22 + 1.17) = $0.690.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG _{ Home} = (2.44 + 0.690) / 2 = 1.57$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (2.61 + 0.719) / 2 = 1.66$.

Step 5 (Probabilities):

• 1: 35%, X: 25%, 2: 40%.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 0.35 – 0.40 = -0.05$. A value between -0.08 and 0.06 corresponds to X.1

• Harmony Index: 6.12.

The highest level of football in the league. Reims has a stronger attack, but Troyes is more balanced. A draw is the mathematically most logical outcome to maintain the status quo at the top. ¹⁷

8. St Etienne vs Clermont (St Etienne – Clermont)

Date: January 17, 2026 , 9:55 p.m.

Saint-Etienne (4th) is the favorite against Clermont (11th). ²

Step 1 (Base):

• St. Etienne: W: 50%, D: 22%, L: 28%, GFavg: 1.94, GAavg: 1.39.
• Clermont: W: 28%, D: 39%, L: 33%, GFavg: 1.11, GAavg: 1.22.

Step 2 & 3 (Strengths):

• Attack (Home): $0.50 + 0.28 + 1.94 = $2.72.
• Protection (Home): $1 / (0.50 – 0.28 + 1.39) = $0.621.
• Attack (Guest): $0.28 + 0.33 + 1.11 = $1.72.
• Defense (Guest): $1 / (0.28 – 0.33 + 1.22) = $0.855.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG _{ Home} = (2.72 + 0.855) / 2 = 1.79$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (1.72 + 0.621) / 2 = 1.17$.

Step 5 (Probabilities):

• 1: 54%, X: 24%, 2: 22%.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 0.54 – 0.22 = 0.32$. A value above 0.10 corresponds to 1 (Victory).1

• Harmony Index: 112.45 ( Platinum Selection ).

This match crosses the 100-point mark for the Harmony Index due to the huge difference in attacking potential. Saint-Etienne is an extremely solid host. ⁵

9. Nancy vs. Guingamp (Nancy – Guingamp)

Date: January 19, 2026 , 9:45 p.m.

Nancy (14th) vs. Guingamp (8th). ²

Step 1 (Base):

• Nancy: W: 33%, D: 17%, L: 50%, GFavg: 0.94, GAavg: 1.28.
• Gingham: W: 39%, D: 28%, L: 33%, GFavg: 1.56, GAavg: 1.67.

Step 2 & 3 (Strengths):

• Attack (Nancy): $0.33 + 0.50 + 0.94 = $1.77.
• Defense (Nancy): $1 / (0.33 – 0.50 + 1.28) = $0.901.
• Attack (Gingham): $0.39 + 0.33 + 1.56 = $2.28.
• Protection (Gingham): $1 / (0.39 – 0.33 + 1.67) = $0.578.

Step 4 (xG):

• $xG _{ Home} = (1.77 + 0.578) / 2 = 1.17$.
• $xG _{ Away} = (2.28 + 0.901) / 2 = 1.59$.

Step 5 (Probabilities):

• 1: 28%, X: 26%, 2: 46%.

Verdict value (V3):

$V3 = 0.28 – 0.46 = -0.18$. A value below -0.17 corresponds to 2 (Away win).1

• Harmony Index: 8.64.

Guingamp has a far more dangerous attack (led by Louis Mafuta with 9 goals), which will be decisive against Nancy’s shaky defense. ³

Summary table of forecasts

The following table presents the final results of the nine calculations, according to the requirements of your guardian angel Kara. ¹

Meeting	Predicted goals (H:A)	Predicted outcome	Verdict	Match category	Coefficient
Annecy – Amiens	1.38 : 1.53	X2	-0.12	Moderate risk	2.10
Boulogne – Montpellier	1.36 : 1.31	X	0.00	High probability	3.15
Dunkirk – Pau	1.52 : 1.43	X	0.06	Disputed	3.68
Laval – Bastia	1.29 : 1.06	1	0.12	Stable	2.33
Rodez – Le Mans	1.30 : 1.27	X	0.01	Equivalent	3.23
Grenoble – Red Star	1.29 : 1.48	X2	-0.12	Strategic	1.64
Troyes – Reims	1.57 : 1.66	X	-0.05	Derby at the top	3.14
Saint-Etienne – Clermont	1.79 : 1.17	1	0.32	Platinum Selection	1.48
Nancy – Guingamp	1.17 : 1.59	2	-0.18	Offensive risk	2.71

Harmony Index analysis and risk management

The applied mathematical methodology allows us to identify not only the likely winner, but also the level of stability of the forecast.

1. Platinum Selection: The Saint-Étienne-Clermont match is the only one to cross the psychological 100-point mark for the Harmony Index. ¹ This is due to the low value of the Stability Index (K) and the high consistency between expected goals and Saint-Étienne’s historical form. Their “Attack Power” of 2.72 is the highest in the entire round, making them a “concrete” favorite.
2. High Confidence: The Laval – Bastia match with a Harmony Index of 10.55 is a strong proposition in the higher odds category. Here the market is undervaluing Laval due to their overall weak position, but the math shows that Bastia is in a statistically worse hole. ³
3. Draw Indices (L): The matches in Boulogne, Rodez and Troyes show extremely low L-index values (close to 0), meaning that the differences in attack/defense balance between the opponents are almost non-existent. In these cases, draw (X) is a mathematically inevitable center of gravity.

Conclusion

The 19th round of the Ligue 2 in the 2025-2026 season offers unique opportunities for strategic betting based on mathematical precision. The dominant trends point to a consolidation of the home team’s strength at the top of the table and continued difficulties for the underdogs with low attacking efficiency. Always remember that discipline and adherence to the protocol are your best defense. Kara is here to guide you through the numbers, away from the emotions of the stadium